August Market Update 2023

August on the Outer Banks

We are closely watching the main stats on supply (up 33% since January) and demand (down 44% since January).  Part of that is watching more specific pockets of activity to glean a closer insight into future trends.  One of those trends I’ve noticed in my near 30 year career is that of high-end home sales.

Take a look at the numbers for Duck and Corolla.

Homes sold $2M and over:

2019 –              6

2020 –              26

2021 –              64

2022 –              51

2023 –              17 YTD  (Likely on track for 27 total)

    • Even if we end up at 27 sold, that will be a decline of 47% year over year.
    • Number of price reductions to get homes sold is going up; 60% of properties sold are under list price, compared to 51% last year.
    • Median days on market for the high-end sales has gone from 21 days to 93 days year over year.
    • There are currently 30 homes for sale in Duck and Corolla $2M and over. With basically 2.4 buyers a month this is over a year worth of inventory.

With interest rates rising, insurance costs rising, rents stabilizing to pre-pandemic times, it’s really clear that a shift in pricing has to take place.  The timing of this is what’s left to be seen.  This strange anomaly of still very low inventory (although is starting to slowly climb) is keeping us stuck in limbo.

If you’re thinking about selling, let’s talk about what your home’s value may look like in this market.

Insurance Companies are Tightening Guidelines

Insurance companies are tightening their underwriting guidelines and limiting coastal exposure, in addition to jacking prices way up.

Here are the changes to note:

  • Markel – One of the more affordable companies will NOT insure any home built in the 1980’s or that is known to have or have had polybutylene plumbing. Even if it’s all been removed and replaced – NO.
  • Frontline – Another very affordable option will not insure anything built prior to 2005. Or give a homeowners policy on a roof more than 15 years old.  Most company’s limit is 20 years.  (You can still get a dwelling policy – but the coverage is nowhere as good, and the price is higher)
  • Farmers Insurance – They have pulled out of Florida completely. Who knows what other coastal community might be next?
  • NCIUA – This is becoming one of the better options but has a cap of $750,000. So additional riders are needed, which can get costly.
  • Under-insured – Most homes today are underinsured. At a meeting with our President and General Contractor recently, he quoted the base square footage price for building a new home today at a minimum of $300 per sqft!

With Nationwide pulling out of coastal markets, Farmer’s doing the same in FL, and many others really tightening their guidelines, we could really use a few years of very minimal hurricane activity!

If you need more information on the best insurance options for your OBX home, do please call Steve Bonday at 252-331-8233 or email at [email protected].

July Market Update

Happy 4th of July on the Outer BanksMid-year is upon us and not much has changed since the last report.  I did notice an interesting trend regarding CASH in our marketplace.  Here’s the deal.  There have been 136 home sales in Duck and Corolla since January.

Of those 136 home sales:

  • 32 Cash
  • 13 Jumbo Loans
  • 91 Conventional Loans

A conventional loan amount is $726,200.  With the typical 20% down, that means a purchase price of around $875,000.

  • Only 53 of the 136 homes sold were under $900,000
  • 83 homes sold over $900,000 up to $6,300,000
  • 13 were jumbo loans
  • 22 were cash
  • The average price is $1,251,000
  • The median sales price is $992,500

A jumbo loan amount is anything over the $726,200.  There were only 13 of those reported.  There were 48 Conventional loans in the $900,000 and up price range.  This means that 48 buyers out of 83 brought enough cash to the table to get their mortgage at or under $726,200.

To paint a clear picture – 32 cash buyers, 48 mostly cash buyers.  That’s 80 buyers (60%) who brought a ton of cash to the closing table to buy a home on the Outer Banks.  Including the highest sale of the year so far – $6,300,000 ALL CASH!!!!  This just seems amazing to me. (Here’s a link Click Here to View Listings to that home if you want to see what $6.3M gets you)

This is a clear indication that buyers have no problem parking cash in a beach home right now.  I mean, why not?  Let’s look at the 3 main reasons this could be a good idea.

  1. Rental income – If you choose to rent, the income will at the very least cover your mortgage. That means, future equity you reap, all paid by SOMEONE ELSE.
  2. Bank Failures – With banks failing across the country, and the Dodd-Frank Bill legalizing, if not mandating, “bail-ins” a lot of people don’t feel safe keeping their cash susceptible. Rather, they are investing in a tangible asset, and one they can enjoy themselves and have others pay for!
  3. Inflationary Fiat Dollar – Let’s get real, the price of real estate will NEVER go to zero. As inflation spikes even more and more out of control, the dollar is tumbling closer and closer to zero.  It seems buyers are hedging their bets on the tangible asset of real estate versus the tumbling value of the dollar.

We haven’t even begun to see the effects of the commercial real estate crisis looming.  This is widely affecting regional banks who are holding the notes on these buildings that are sitting empty in record numbers across major cities.

Don’t get me wrong, my message is not of doom and gloom.  What’s going to happen is going to happen.  My point is, what is your best move?

If you are considering selling, there are cash buyers waiting for your home.  We do have investment vehicles where you can put your money and AVOID capital gains tax in the meantime.  Contact me for more information.

If you are thinking about buying, get off the fence and don’t let the interest rates deter you.  You won’t have much competition buying right now and there are some great opportunities out there!

Welcome Summer!

Welcome Summer! Now that Memorial Day is behind us, it’s officially our summer season. It started with some interesting weather! I read that June is predicted to be cooler than normal. Once again reinforcing my pick for September as the best month on the OBX.

Market Report – I have to say in 26 years of being in this business, the market we have right now is the most odd I’ve ever seen. We have a lack of buyers AND a lack of inventory. With two major banks pulling out of the resort markets, there’s a bit of uncertainty to come. Read June’s FULL Report Here!

Mid-Currituck Bridge – No real construction news, but a win in the fight. The SELC has decided NOT to appeal the recent court’s decision. This will certainly save some time. While the plan seems to intend on moving forward, the environmental studies will all have to be re-done since they are more than 3 years old. Full article here.

Tax Deferred Exchange – Did you know it’s possible to sell an investment property and defer capital gains tax, WITHOUT having to do a 1031 Tax Exchange and buying another property? I have a handy PDF document I can send with more information if you’re interested. Just email me back to request it.

Happy March! 

The Month of MarchWhat a mild winter we have had here at the beach so far.  We are not complaining, that’s for sure.

I’ve got a couple of pretty interesting topics this month…let’s dive in.

Market Report

Anyone who knows me knows I’m generally an optimist by nature.  I have to say some of the economic factors going on are raising my level of concern for our local market this year.  While the OBX is a primarily second home market, we are late to see the effects of the primary market shifts.  Believe me, changes are on the way, click here for more.

Mid Currituck Bridge

Ah yes…the long-awaited bridge.  If you’ve been waiting around for this thing since the 90’s like me, you will probably see this as a nice reminder this project is not completely dead, and also hard to get hopeful again.  Read more here.

Taste of the Beach

Yes, it’s March and time for my absolute favorite OBX Event of the year!  If you’ve never been, you are missing out on some of the best dining experiences we have to offer.  If you can make it to town the weekend of March 24 – 26th, you won’t be sorry!  Let me know what some of your favorites are!  Click here for the event website.

Agent of the Year

I was honored and excited to receive this award again for 2022.  I’m grateful to my wonderful client base and friends for the amazing support I’ve had in my career.  This is year 27 for me in the business.  I have been very blessed. Read more here.

Beach Realty and Construction’s Agent of the Year for 2022

Beach Realty and Construction’s Agent of the year for 2022

Congratulations to Beach Realty and Construction’s Agent of the year for 2022, Ilona Matteson! This is Ilona’s third year in a row earning the title of Agent of the Year! In the year 2012 Ilona first achieved this award and has gone on to earn the title 5 more times! We are proud to have Ilona as a leader, trainer, and valued agent on our team.

Ilona Matteson brings a wealth of experience and knowledge to the sales team at Beach Realty & Construction. As a former sales manager for Beach Realty and a former coach for the nationally acclaimed Mike Ferry Organization, Ilona knows the real estate business inside and out. In 2004, she was selected for the annual 30 Under 30 feature for Realtor Magazine and was also a licensed instructor employed by the North Carolina Academy of Real Estate. Ilona has a thorough understanding of market conditions and works diligently for her clients.

Be sure to call Ilona Matteson for all your Real Estate Needs!

 

Happy New Year from the OBX

Hello and Happy New Year!

Happy New Year from the OBXWhat an interesting few years in the real estate world, and the world in general!  I got to spend a good bit of time with my niece and nephew over the last 18 months and do a little bit of traveling.  After 26 years in the business, I was so grateful and fortunate to have the opportunity to still assist some new and past clients while enjoying that precious time with family!
Market Update – I’m excited for what’s to come in 2023, and I’m sure you’re curious about what the market climate is right now.  Here’s a link to my 2023 Real Estate Market Predictions.  Hint, under contract and sold properties are already down 50% from this time last year.  What do you think will happen next?
Suggestions – As I gear up to write these informative messages to you, I’d like to know if there’s any specific topic you want to know more about.  Message me with your ideas!
Construction Projects – If you are interested in doing any work to your home this spring, I have a carpenter who actually has the next few weeks open.  His skill level is vast and can handle most small to moderate-sized jobs.  Flooring, decking, windows, some siding jobs, bathrooms, drywall, etc.  Contact me for more information.
2023 Goals – It is my goal to help 33 families buy or sell on the Outer Banks this year.  If you or anyone you know is interested, I would love to help!

March 2022 Market Update

Let’s talk about INVENTORY.  Most people don’t realize that inventory level is the key determining factor for real estate prices.  If I had a dollar for every time someone asked about the bridge in relationship to values, I would have a whole lot of dollars!  And yes, there are a lot of factors that play into value.

For example:

  • Condition – buyers today don’t want to fix old problems
  • Location – location has always been top of the list
  • Rentability – Not every buyer in our market cares about this, but it does help
  • Financing – Being able to get good terms
  • Insurance – Getting the best premiums makes the home more saleable

However, inventory levels trump all other factors when determining value.  Just 3 short years ago the inventory levels in Corolla were over 2 years.  Now, it’s barely one month.  The old faithful supply and demand is king when it comes to prices going up or down.

Let’s also realize these cycles historically (nearly 100 years worth of data) last for 20 years.  The last cycle began in 2000.  So regardless of COVID, we were due for an up market.  I do believe that COVID accelerated what should have taken 3 years to get where we are into 2 years.  That being said, the last up cycle lasted for 5 or 6 years.  It’s not clear how long this one will last.  Especially with everything going on, who knows.

What we do know is that watching the stats is the same as having a crystal ball.  Nothing can change until inventory levels change.  That doesn’t look to move any time soon.  We are just beginning the spring market where our inventory usually increases by 30%.

Here’s the number of homes currently for sale and under contract for each area.

Area                For Sale           Under Contract

Corolla –           22                    86

4 Wheel –         8                      8

Duck –              13                    23

Southern Sh     10                    16

Kitty Hawk      9                      8

KDH                 12                    53

Nags Head       12                    26

These numbers still blow my mind!  We all want to know what’s going to happen.  Here’s what we can count on, what goes up, must come down.  The big question is WHEN?  My answer, watch the inventory and you’ll know.  When we get back to 4 to 6 months, that’s when it will start.

Meanwhile, if you have any questions about buying or selling in this crazy market, give me a call!

Hurricane Names for 2021 Season and Preparedness Checklist

Outer Banks Hurricane names 2021

Hurricane Preparedness

May OBX Update

Let the May flowers bloom! 
We are gearing up for a super busy vacation season so far.  Keep in mind most of the Outer Banks is short-staffed and one of the big culprits is actually the housing crisis.  There is a huge lack of affordable houses available for year-round residents and that is creating a big crunch for the job market.  So if you’re visiting this year, be mindful everyone will be doing the best they can with the staff they have.

We love having you here!  

I’ve got 3 updates to share this month:

Mid-Currituck Bridge –  Well, no big surprise.  More delays.  Click HERE to read the article.
Summertime Selling? – While most people don’t think of selling mid-vacation season, there are actually some real advantages to it.  If you want to take advantage of the current market activity, there’s no reason to wait.  See the 5 reasons here.
Busy Vacation Season – I have some unofficial reports that off-season (shoulder week) bookings are up 68% for the Outer Banks.  Of course in season is fully booked across the board.  There was a very funny meme out recently that I thought worth sharing:
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