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Outer Banks Market Update – March 2023
As of right now, the Outer Banks is experiencing what is considered to be a “normal market”. That means we are not seeing prices change in any significant way up or down. While prices are still at what is considered to be somewhat inflated, there’s not been real measurable changes so far. Secondly, we still have a balanced level of inventory. A normal market is considered to be a demand level of 4 to 6 months of inventory. We are sitting right in the middle at 5 months of inventory. This means the demand is steady and supply is still rather low. In comparison at the peak times in 2021 and 2022, we had just a 2-month inventory.
This begs the question, where are we headed? There are 3 factors I’m watching to help determine that. What’s great about Beach Realty is we watch the statistics every single week. It’s just as good as having a crystal ball. The numbers change in a gradual way that you can actually see the shifts coming if you’re paying attention, which we are!
Factor 1 – Mortgage Applications
Year over year nationwide mortgage applications to buy a home has fallen 41%. In just a YEAR! It’s currently at the lowest level in 28 years right now. That’s even worse than the mortgage crash that happened in 2008. Coupled with data from NAR, only 29% of recent home purchases are cash. The most obvious cause is rising interest rates and still inflated home prices. As a second home market, over 70% of our home sales are a discretionary purchase. It’s a decision buyers can wait on, especially if they think changes are coming soon.
Factor 2 – FNMA and Second Homes
About a year ago Fannie Mae basically got out of the second home business. Wanting to pull support from second homes and focus more on first time home buyer programs they negotiated a deal with the Mortgage Bankers Association to drastically increase rates on second homes. Which at the time didn’t seem too objectionable on conforming loans because the conforming loan limit was $548,250. With the average second home here being near $700,000, most buyers wouldn’t be affected. Now the limit is $726,200 for a conforming loan, coupled with the most attractive rates being a now 75% LTV, the rates shot up over 7% with one point. Making it even more expensive than ever to buy a home on the Outer Banks with a conforming limit mortgage. I don’t know the exact percentage of second home mortgages that are sold to Fannie Mae, but I think an educated guess would be MOST of them. The only solution is for mortgage brokers to keep the loans on their books and try to offer more attractive rates. Who knows how long that will last and how many lenders will participate. I only know of one broker with that program right now.
Factor 3 – Rising Inventory
As buyer demand continues to soften due to rates and prices, inventory will start to creep up this spring and summer. That could lead us directly into an inventory level over 6 or 7 months by fall. That pushes us back into a buyer’s market. If rental receipts drop this year, as expected, this fall we could see prices take a very noticeable hit. How much is yet to be determined. However, with as high as prices rose over the last few years, even a 10% drop would likely still put the home higher than pricing was in 2019. So all is not lost, for this year at least.
If you’re thinking about selling, NOW is your window. Give me a call to discuss further.
Happy New Year from the OBX
Hello and Happy New Year!
What an interesting few years in the real estate world, and the world in general! I got to spend a good bit of time with my niece and nephew over the last 18 months and do a little bit of traveling. After 26 years in the business, I was so grateful and fortunate to have the opportunity to still assist some new and past clients while enjoying that precious time with family!Do you still need a LIVE real estate agent?
As the article I read recently proclaims, America’s favorite springtime sport does not involve a stadium, peanuts or cracker jacks. It is browsing the real-estate market.
Zillow is a great tool if you’re a novice to the market and just want to look around an area, city, or use a zip code to look at property. However from my recent experiences with several clients there is nothing that beats a good agent.
Buying a house is really hard work these days. Between flood insurance issues, the never ending and increasingly more difficult lending process, navigating the 11 plus addenda page legal contract, and the home inspection issues that arise…going this process without a proven professional will ONLY result in frustration and a deal not closed.
The fact is, YOU already have a full time job. So do I…dealing with all of these issues. It used to be that we would advertise, find a buyer, negotiate the terms and then turn it over to the attorney to close in 30 days. Boy those were the days! Not today. I’m finding that I’m more needed in the transaction at day 20 to 45 than even before negotiation.
Sadly most of the lending problems don’t show up until the last minute. The flood insurance issues don’t pop up until the appraisal is done and elevation certificate is issued or turned over. It’s not the same to buy a house today, as it was when I started my career nearly 18 years ago. We had a simple 2 page contract then!
Zillow is not in a position to assist with any of these issues. Only a full time, professional real estate agent with lots of experience is going to be able to successfully navigate the way from contract to closing. Finding the buyer is the easy part…getting the deal closed is where the blood, sweat and tears come in.
Financially Zillow looks even less attractive, at least to me. They are expected to lose 27 million this year. A loss that is double of last year. Wall Street loves the stock and it has done well for many but a company losing double of last year’s earnings is not for me.
In my humble opinion, you cannot beat the real life experience of a live real estate agent.
