For Last 90 days of 2023

What to expect?  Well, short of some financial event or credit crisis, probably more of the same.  The big challenge with resort markets, aka discretionary markets, is the lag time.  It generally takes about 18 months for economic factors in the real world to make their way to us.

Because we don’t have a large section of properties that “have to sell” to keep our market moving, as soon as buyers slow down, inventory piles up.  At least that’s how it normally is.  Truthfully, we are not that far from inventory pushing that market shift from “normal” to “soft.”

That being said, right now here are the main highlights of our current market for Single Family Homes.

Corolla, Duck, Southern Shores           
KDH, Kitty Hawk, Nags Head
Active – 110 Active – 110
Under Contract – 52 Under Contract – 44
Sold – 274 (30 buyers/month) Sold – 289 (32 buyers/month)
Absorption Rate – 3.6 months Absorption Rate – 3.4 months

I double-checkedhose numbers, and it is such a coincidence to have the same active for both north and south markets!  They are shockingly similar in all categories.

With 30 buyers a month, 180 active would make it a 6-month absorption rate.  That’s only 70 more listings to push us into a soft/declining market.  I don’t think it’s unrealistic to suggest we could be there by spring.

Real estate is long term investment.  You can time it right, or you can hold and enjoy.  If you have questions on what is the best strategy for you, call for an appointment.

August Market Update 2023

August on the Outer Banks

We are closely watching the main stats on supply (up 33% since January) and demand (down 44% since January).  Part of that is watching more specific pockets of activity to glean a closer insight into future trends.  One of those trends I’ve noticed in my near 30 year career is that of high-end home sales.

Take a look at the numbers for Duck and Corolla.

Homes sold $2M and over:

2019 –              6

2020 –              26

2021 –              64

2022 –              51

2023 –              17 YTD  (Likely on track for 27 total)

    • Even if we end up at 27 sold, that will be a decline of 47% year over year.
    • Number of price reductions to get homes sold is going up; 60% of properties sold are under list price, compared to 51% last year.
    • Median days on market for the high-end sales has gone from 21 days to 93 days year over year.
    • There are currently 30 homes for sale in Duck and Corolla $2M and over. With basically 2.4 buyers a month this is over a year worth of inventory.

With interest rates rising, insurance costs rising, rents stabilizing to pre-pandemic times, it’s really clear that a shift in pricing has to take place.  The timing of this is what’s left to be seen.  This strange anomaly of still very low inventory (although is starting to slowly climb) is keeping us stuck in limbo.

If you’re thinking about selling, let’s talk about what your home’s value may look like in this market.

July Market Update

Happy 4th of July on the Outer BanksMid-year is upon us and not much has changed since the last report.  I did notice an interesting trend regarding CASH in our marketplace.  Here’s the deal.  There have been 136 home sales in Duck and Corolla since January.

Of those 136 home sales:

  • 32 Cash
  • 13 Jumbo Loans
  • 91 Conventional Loans

A conventional loan amount is $726,200.  With the typical 20% down, that means a purchase price of around $875,000.

  • Only 53 of the 136 homes sold were under $900,000
  • 83 homes sold over $900,000 up to $6,300,000
  • 13 were jumbo loans
  • 22 were cash
  • The average price is $1,251,000
  • The median sales price is $992,500

A jumbo loan amount is anything over the $726,200.  There were only 13 of those reported.  There were 48 Conventional loans in the $900,000 and up price range.  This means that 48 buyers out of 83 brought enough cash to the table to get their mortgage at or under $726,200.

To paint a clear picture – 32 cash buyers, 48 mostly cash buyers.  That’s 80 buyers (60%) who brought a ton of cash to the closing table to buy a home on the Outer Banks.  Including the highest sale of the year so far – $6,300,000 ALL CASH!!!!  This just seems amazing to me. (Here’s a link Click Here to View Listings to that home if you want to see what $6.3M gets you)

This is a clear indication that buyers have no problem parking cash in a beach home right now.  I mean, why not?  Let’s look at the 3 main reasons this could be a good idea.

  1. Rental income – If you choose to rent, the income will at the very least cover your mortgage. That means, future equity you reap, all paid by SOMEONE ELSE.
  2. Bank Failures – With banks failing across the country, and the Dodd-Frank Bill legalizing, if not mandating, “bail-ins” a lot of people don’t feel safe keeping their cash susceptible. Rather, they are investing in a tangible asset, and one they can enjoy themselves and have others pay for!
  3. Inflationary Fiat Dollar – Let’s get real, the price of real estate will NEVER go to zero. As inflation spikes even more and more out of control, the dollar is tumbling closer and closer to zero.  It seems buyers are hedging their bets on the tangible asset of real estate versus the tumbling value of the dollar.

We haven’t even begun to see the effects of the commercial real estate crisis looming.  This is widely affecting regional banks who are holding the notes on these buildings that are sitting empty in record numbers across major cities.

Don’t get me wrong, my message is not of doom and gloom.  What’s going to happen is going to happen.  My point is, what is your best move?

If you are considering selling, there are cash buyers waiting for your home.  We do have investment vehicles where you can put your money and AVOID capital gains tax in the meantime.  Contact me for more information.

If you are thinking about buying, get off the fence and don’t let the interest rates deter you.  You won’t have much competition buying right now and there are some great opportunities out there!

November Outer Banks Market Report       

It’s still 70 degrees here in Corolla today!  Almost mid November and it’s very warm.  Also SMOKING HOT is real estate market activity!  Pending sales are up 56% from last year.  That means there are more properties under contract right now than this same time last year.

However, most importantly to note, prices are NOT up.  In fact in some markets, like Corolla, they have still declined.  Other areas remain virtually unchanged.  So we are selling more houses for the same or less money.  That’s not a terrible thing, because it means we are stabilizing.  That’s a good sign, since it’s a necessary part of a recovery.

Let’s remember, the majority of home sales on the Outer Banks are to buyers who don’t live here.  That means it is a discretionary purchase, which will cause our recovery to naturally be slower than those year round markets.  This is nothing new.  The same thing happened when the real estate market crashed in the late 80’s.  It was almost 1999 before things recovered.

Distressed property sales are down 30% from last year.  So the truth is those sales are no longer a factor and are certainly not what’s holding back prices.  The main issue is STILL supply and demand.  We have a whopping 16 months worth of inventory on the market right now.

That means if nothing new came on the market it would take 16 months to sell out what’s currently for sale.  A normal market is considered to be a 4 to 6 month supply.  Since we are selling more than last year and this “16 months” is the lowest absorption rate we’ve seen in many years, I would say this is another great sign that we are getting close to the end of the stagnant time.

The important thing to remember is, prices won’t immediately start to go up either.  Appreciation takes time.  So if your home is worth 15% to 20% less than what you would prefer to sell it for in today’s market, you could still be another 6 or more years away from getting your preferred price.  And we don’t know what an interest rate hike could do to that time frame either.  That kind of increase in value will take time, as it should, or we will only be setting ourselves up for another crash.  Which I’m sure, nobody wants to experience again this soon if at all!

That being said, if you want to buy a great house, it may not last long.  Especially if the home is priced right.  If you want to sell your home, price it aggressively and the buyers will show up!

 

Best Buys for July 2015

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New Price!! Spend your Lazy Summer Days on Your Sun Deck in Corolla!

new price grebe point

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Best Buys for June 2015

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June Market Update

This month let’s take a look at what’s happening in each specific location for a closer, more in depth view understanding.

Corolla

Corolla Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 377
Total # Selling per month 17
Months of remaining Inventory 22
# of New listings each month 45

Corolla has a 22 month supply of inventory.  It’s the weakest market on the Outer Banks right now in terms of supply and demand.  Constant price reductions are needed to get homes sold.  When a home comes on the market priced well, it will sell quickly.

Duck

Duck Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 154
Total # Selling per month 8
Months of remaining Inventory 19
# of New listings each month 18

One great trend in Duck is that the supply of homes under $300,000 is very diminished.  While the inventory issue is still a problem for Duck, homes will sell very fast when priced for the market.

Southern Shores

Southern Shores Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 93
Total # Selling per month 7
Months of remaining Inventory 13
# of New listings each month 20

The Southern Shores market is doing quite well.  It has one of the lowest inventory levels of all the towns.  Land sales are fantastic in Southern Shores right now.

Kitty Hawk

Kitty Hawk Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 77
Total # Selling per month 13
Months of remaining Inventory 22
# of New listings each month 19

Kitty Hawk between the highways is a fast seller right now.  Those homes are a fantastic value and buyers are recognizing that.

Kill Devil Hills

Kill Devil Hills Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 182
Total # Selling per month 19
Months of remaining Inventory 9.5
# of New listings each month 40

By far the most stable market on the Outer Banks right now is Kill Devil Hills.  Keep in mind the majority of homes selling here are under $300,000.  This area has the best supply and demand situation of all the towns.

Nags Head

Nags Head Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 190
Total # Selling per month 14
Months of remaining Inventory 13.5
# of New listings each month 25

Nags Head is holding it’s own right now.  The average price there is $350,000 which makes it super affordable for such a great location.

So as you can see, right now selling a home on the Outer Banks comes solely down to price and condition.  Buyers still have too many choices for prices to change any time soon.  The good news is we have steady activity in the marketplace right now and it doesn’t seem to be slowing down.

If you’d like more information about buying
or selling a home on the Outer Banks, just let me know how I can help you.

Best Buys for March 2015

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Great View and Privacy Provided with your Huge Corolla Lot!

526 Sandbucket Arch Front Exterior526 Sandbucket Arch
Corolla, NC

MLS#85193    $695,000

What a home!!! So many updates and upgrades have been done to this great Section C home. Within the last 3 years there was a new kitchen with granite countertops, all new tile flooring on the top level, new carpet in 4 bedrooms, new wood floors in hallway and steps, updated bathrooms with tile shower, pool, and furniture. New for 2014 is the roof, elevator, front deck with Trex material. Move in ready and CLEAN! It’s a great rental home or second home. HUGE lot with excellent privacy it feels like it’s the only home around. Enjoy the ocean views and extremely short walk to direct beach access. The top floor features a HUGE and open living/dining/kitchen area with more than enough room to spread out. In the off season you can relax by the wood burning fireplace.

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