Outer Banks Market Update – March 2023

As of right now, the Outer Banks is experiencing what is considered to be a “normal market”.  That means we are not seeing prices change in any significant way up or down.  While prices are still at what is considered to be somewhat inflated, there’s not been real measurable changes so far.  Secondly, we still have a balanced level of inventory.  A normal market is considered to be a demand level of 4 to 6 months of inventory.  We are sitting right in the middle at 5 months of inventory.  This means the demand is steady and supply is still rather low.  In comparison at the peak times in 2021 and 2022, we had just a 2-month inventory.

This begs the question, where are we headed?  There are 3 factors I’m watching to help determine that.  What’s great about Beach Realty is we watch the statistics every single week.  It’s just as good as having a crystal ball. The numbers change in a gradual way that you can actually see the shifts coming if you’re paying attention, which we are!

Factor 1 – Mortgage Applications

Year over year nationwide mortgage applications to buy a home has fallen 41%.  In just a YEAR!  It’s currently at the lowest level in 28 years right now.  That’s even worse than the mortgage crash that happened in 2008.  Coupled with data from NAR, only 29% of recent home purchases are cash.  The most obvious cause is rising interest rates and still inflated home prices.  As a second home market, over 70% of our home sales are a discretionary purchase.  It’s a decision buyers can wait on, especially if they think changes are coming soon.

Factor 2 – FNMA and Second Homes

About a year ago Fannie Mae basically got out of the second home business.  Wanting to pull support from second homes and focus more on first time home buyer programs they negotiated a deal with the Mortgage Bankers Association to drastically increase rates on second homes.  Which at the time didn’t seem too objectionable on conforming loans because the conforming loan limit was $548,250.  With the average second home here being near $700,000, most buyers wouldn’t be affected.  Now the limit is $726,200 for a conforming loan, coupled with the most attractive rates being a now 75% LTV, the rates shot up over 7% with one point.  Making it even more expensive than ever to buy a home on the Outer Banks with a conforming limit mortgage. I don’t know the exact percentage of second home mortgages that are sold to Fannie Mae, but I think an educated guess would be MOST of them.  The only solution is for mortgage brokers to keep the loans on their books and try to offer more attractive rates.  Who knows how long that will last and how many lenders will participate.  I only know of one broker with that program right now.

Factor 3 – Rising Inventory

As buyer demand continues to soften due to rates and prices, inventory will start to creep up this spring and summer.  That could lead us directly into an inventory level over 6 or 7 months by fall.  That pushes us back into a buyer’s market.  If rental receipts drop this year, as expected, this fall we could see prices take a very noticeable hit.  How much is yet to be determined.  However, with as high as prices rose over the last few years, even a 10% drop would likely still put the home higher than pricing was in 2019.  So all is not lost, for this year at least.

If you’re thinking about selling, NOW is your window.  Give me a call to discuss further.

The 2015 Outer Banks Market Report

We saw a lot of very positive signs in 2015 that continue to lead us on the path to recovery.  While we still have an oversupply of inventory on the market, keeping prices down, we have a double digit increase in number of sales.

The other interesting trend is showing more homes in the higher price ranges are selling and fewer homes offered in the under $300,000 price range.  That is showing our median sales price to be up, even though individual home prices aren’t rising at this point.

It’s virtually impossible for our home values to go up when inventory is still at a 15 month supply.  However, it’s a great step forward.  We saw a 20% increase in number of sales for 2012, then it steadied for 2 years until another big increase in sales for 2015.

Mortgage brokers are expecting a surge in activity the first part of 2016 to beat the Fed’s promise of rising interest rates.  We certainly have a year round market on the OBX and see great activity all year long.  The two spikes in activity happen in March/April and September/October.  No need to wait though, we can get your home sold any time of year.

Here is the breakdown of where we ended up for 2015:

  • Residential number of sales were up 11%
  • Average sales price was down 2%
  • Land sales numbers were down 5%
  • Average sales price was up 7%
  • Inventory was down 8%, being the lowest since 2007
  • Foreclosed home sales were down 37%

Next month I’ll provide a break down of each location individually so you can see how it compares year over year.

If you have any questions or would like additional information please let me know.

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June Market Update

This month let’s take a look at what’s happening in each specific location for a closer, more in depth view understanding.

Corolla

Corolla Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 377
Total # Selling per month 17
Months of remaining Inventory 22
# of New listings each month 45

Corolla has a 22 month supply of inventory.  It’s the weakest market on the Outer Banks right now in terms of supply and demand.  Constant price reductions are needed to get homes sold.  When a home comes on the market priced well, it will sell quickly.

Duck

Duck Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 154
Total # Selling per month 8
Months of remaining Inventory 19
# of New listings each month 18

One great trend in Duck is that the supply of homes under $300,000 is very diminished.  While the inventory issue is still a problem for Duck, homes will sell very fast when priced for the market.

Southern Shores

Southern Shores Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 93
Total # Selling per month 7
Months of remaining Inventory 13
# of New listings each month 20

The Southern Shores market is doing quite well.  It has one of the lowest inventory levels of all the towns.  Land sales are fantastic in Southern Shores right now.

Kitty Hawk

Kitty Hawk Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 77
Total # Selling per month 13
Months of remaining Inventory 22
# of New listings each month 19

Kitty Hawk between the highways is a fast seller right now.  Those homes are a fantastic value and buyers are recognizing that.

Kill Devil Hills

Kill Devil Hills Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 182
Total # Selling per month 19
Months of remaining Inventory 9.5
# of New listings each month 40

By far the most stable market on the Outer Banks right now is Kill Devil Hills.  Keep in mind the majority of homes selling here are under $300,000.  This area has the best supply and demand situation of all the towns.

Nags Head

Nags Head Stats  
Total # of Homes for Sale 190
Total # Selling per month 14
Months of remaining Inventory 13.5
# of New listings each month 25

Nags Head is holding it’s own right now.  The average price there is $350,000 which makes it super affordable for such a great location.

So as you can see, right now selling a home on the Outer Banks comes solely down to price and condition.  Buyers still have too many choices for prices to change any time soon.  The good news is we have steady activity in the marketplace right now and it doesn’t seem to be slowing down.

If you’d like more information about buying
or selling a home on the Outer Banks, just let me know how I can help you.

New Listing! 3104 Columbia Avenue Kill Devil Hills, NC 27948

13New Listing!!
3104 Columbia Avenue
Kill Devil Hills, NC

MLS# 87201        $240,000

This charming beach box is located in a prime area in Kill Devil Hills. The garage was converted to a work area/laundry room/game area and additional bedroom with private bathroom. Take the interior stairs up to an open great room with kitchen and dining area. Two additional bedrooms are on the south side of the top floor with a hall bath. A large master bedroom and bath with walk in closet are on the north side. The fenced in back yard makes this a great choice for buyers with dogs or small kids. Plenty of room to play. Maintenance free vinyl siding is a plus!

Contact me for more details!

 
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Fall in Love with this Cozy Beach House in the Heart of Duck!

OBARMLS86752New Listing!!
124 Marlin Drive,
Duck, NC

MLS #: 86752        $325,000

You will love this cute and cozy beach house right in the heart of Duck. This home sits right in the middle of Marlin Drive. Easy access to the beach or the foot/bike path into Town for shopping and restaurants. Enjoy three bedrooms and 2 full baths on the top floor. Along with an open concept kitchen, living and dining area. Relax on the screened porch for shade or sun on the huge, open back deck. The ground floor offers an outside shower, storage and another large bedroom and bathroom. The septic was updated in 2005 to accommodate the additional bedroom. This home has been well cared for and it shows.

Never rented, just used by family and friends.

This is the perfect house to call your own for an incredible price in Duck!

Contact me for more details!

 
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Winter Blues? Think of the Summer Possibilities in Duck!

101 Snow Geese Dr S Duck, NC 27949101 Snow Geese Dr S
Duck, NC

MLS# 85192          $329,000

This home is the perfect getaway just North of “downtown” Duck. Enjoy a short bike ride or stroll into town for shopping or restaurants. Lovingly updated just a few years ago you’ll find laminate wood floors, newer carpet and furnishings throughout the home. Ground floor game room with separate entrance is a great place to hang out after a day at the beach. Enjoy the hot tub or rooftop deck at sunrise! The open concept kitchen/dining/living room is perfect for entertaining with floor to ceiling windows facing the Sound for plenty of natural light.

Keep it as a second home or generate some
rental income on this true cutie.

Contact me for more details

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New Listing!! 124 Marlin Drive, Duck, NC 27949

OBARMLS86752New Listing!!
124 Marlin Drive,
Duck, NC

MLS #: 86752        $325,000

You will love this cute and cozy beach house right in the heart of Duck. This home sits right in the middle of Marlin Drive. Easy access to the beach or the foot/bike path into Town for shopping and restaurants. Enjoy three bedrooms and 2 full baths on the top floor. Along with an open concept kitchen, living and dining area. Relax on the screened porch for shade or sun on the huge, open back deck. The ground floor offers an outside shower, storage and another large bedroom and bathroom. The septic was updated in 2005 to accommodate the additional bedroom. This home has been well cared for and it shows.

Never rented, just used by family and friends.

This is the perfect house to call your own for an incredible price in Duck!

Contact me for more details!

 
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Best Buys on the Outer Banks for February 2015

Contact Me About Any of These Properties!

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Enjoy Nightly Sunsets from Your Rooftop Deck in Duck!

101 Snow Geese Dr S Duck, NC 27949101 Snow Geese Dr S
Duck, NC

MLS# 85192          $329,000

This home is the perfect getaway just North of “downtown” Duck. Enjoy a short bike ride or stroll into town for shopping or restaurants. Lovingly updated just a few years ago you’ll find laminate wood floors, newer carpet and furnishings throughout the home. Ground floor game room with separate entrance is a great place to hang out after a day at the beach. Enjoy the hot tub or rooftop deck at sunrise! The open concept kitchen/dining/living room is perfect for entertaining with floor to ceiling windows facing the Sound for plenty of natural light.

Keep it as a second home or generate some
rental income on this true cutie.

Contact me for more details

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This Home has Many Possibilities for any Lover of Nags Head!

6402 S. Virginia Dare Trail, Nags Head, NC 27959 -- Front6402 S. Virginia Dare Trail,
Nags Head, NC

MLS# 85724          $475,000!!

Perfect getaway and rental home for Nags Head lovers. Enjoy the wonderful views from this semi-oceanfront home with easy beach access. Ground floor game room, private pool, spacious bedrooms and an open living room/dining room on the top floor make this home a must see.

Contact me for more details

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