Mid-Year Review of OBX Stats

July Market Update

2025 2026
Total homes sold 458 443
Median Price $725,250 $740,000
Median Days  37 34



Corolla 106 117
Duck 40 42
SShores 48 41
Kitty Hawk 42 56
KDH 129 114
Nags Head 93 73

As you can see, not much has changed year over year. Inventory is remaining low, keeping prices steady.  Activity seems to be hovering around the same as well.  With the days on market at just over a month, it’s pretty easy to tell if your home is priced according to the market.

If you are sitting on equity in your home and want to see what the market value is, contact me for a full analysis.

Absorption Rate

Absorption rate is a key real estate metric that shows how quickly available homes are selling in a specific market.
It’s calculated by taking the number of homes sold and comparing it to the total number of homes currently for sale.

How to use the number:

  • 0–3 months → 🔥 Seller’s Market (homes selling quickly)
  • 4–6 months → ⚖️ Balanced Market
  • 7+ months → 🧊 Buyer’s Market (homes sitting longer)

See how each town compares here: 

Corolla Duck S. Shores Kitty Hawk KDH Nags Head
Active –  145 32 18 30 100 62
Sold/Month – 17.8 7.3 7.8 7.1 21.8 14.9
Abspt Rate –
in months
8
months
5
months
2.5
months
4
months
4.7
months
4
months
*NL/Month  37 11 3 9 42 13

(*NL/Month = New listings each month)

We know a market is shifting when the Absorption rate goes over 6 AND the number of new listings each month far exceeds the number selling each month.  We are watching Corolla and Kill Devil Hills closely right now.

 

2026 Real Estate Market Prediction

Ilona Matteson - 2026 Real Estate Market ForecastReal estate markets across the country are definitely starting to crack. The northeast is really the last holdout and there are signs of a beginning surge in inventory there. With slowing activity and rising inventory, it looks like the OBX could enter a buyers market by the second quarter of next year.

Right now, our absorption rate has us at the high end of a “normal market”. Just a small increase in inventory at today’s demand level will push us over the 6-month level and right into the next category; slow market, which will favor buyers more.

Most aren’t aware of the impending foreclosure tsunami that is coming in the second quarter of 2026. On October 1st, an FHA workout program that has been in place for the last 5 years got an overhaul. Borrowers have been issued loan modifications over and over.

New guidelines in place are:

  • Only one modification every 24 months
  • Must exhibit the ability to pay the new amount for 6 months
  • Cannot be behind on student loans

FHA is reporting one million borrowers are in default at least 30 days. With these new guidelines in place, that puts a lot of homeowners in jeopardy of being foreclosed. It’s a 90 day process
that started 3 weeks ago. By January, we could start seeing these new listings hitting the market across the country.

While I don’t expect it to have a huge impact on the Outer Banks, it will start to affect markets nearby. Being a resort area, we usually get the trickle-down effect, so expect to see possibly even slower sales next year, which will contribute to higher inventory, eventually translating

Post Summer Market Update

Ilona Matteson

Now that we have almost three quarters to look at, let’s check in on how the market is
performing.

  • Overall – Residential Inventory is up 12% from last year
  • Sales for residential homes remain unchanged
  • Median Sales price for residential homes also remains the same

This means inventory has gone up, but the buyer demand has stayed the same. Right now we
have a 6 month absorption rate, which puts us in what is considered a “Normal Market”. This
means there’s no obvious advantage for the buyer or seller. However, if the inventory
continues to creep up and demand remains the same or drops, that will put us into the next
category “Slow Market” which is the beginning of a buyer’s market. If you’re on the fence
about selling, why not take advantage of the current market conditions?

Let’s break it down by town:

Corolla  Southern Shores
Sales –  Down 29% Sales – Down 5%
Price – Down 7% Price – Unchanged
Duck  Kitty Hawk
Sales – Up 3% Sales – Up 3%
Price – Down 2% Price – Up 4%
Kill Devil Hills  Nags Head
Sales – Down 7% Sales – Up 37%
Price – Up 3% Price – Down 14%

Overall, we are seeing more homes for sale under $500,000 and fewer homes selling over
$2Million. This is the tipping point. The real estate market doesn’t crash overnight. It goes
little by little. We are in the beginning phase, and price correction is continuing to happen due
to all-time low affordability.

A record number of 32% of all mortgage applications are being denied. Considering the
number of applications is historically low anyway, the writing is on the wall for impending
changes to our market. As a resort market, we are always 12 months or more behind the
curve.

To strategize for your best move in achieving real estate goals contact me for a private
consultation!

June OBX Update

We want to list our home,
but what if we get a lowball offer?

This is a common question I get, especially in a market like today.  For the first time in many years, last week we clocked in MORE price reductions than new listings in a month.  That’s a pretty significant milestone.  The peak for pricing has officially passed.  So what happens when a market peaks?  As you know, what goes up must come down.  This never takes place over night, so don’t sweat just yet.

The good news about this market cycle is we have a pretty decent blueprint of what happened during the last cycle to give insight and information.

Here are the basics:

2005 – Prices hit the peak

2008 – 2011 – These years we saw active declining in pricing (not overnight)

2012 – 2019 – These years very little changed, it was stagnant

2020 – Cycle started all over again.

Right now, I would say we are about the same as 2009.  We knew there was some instability in 2023, it really started to show up in 2024 and we are very aware in 2025.

In this cycle, we may not bottom out as quickly as last cycle because the inventory levels aren’t rising like they normally would in a down cycle.  So it is my prediction that the decline may take more than 3 years to occur.

All of that aside, if your plan is to “wait it out”, you need to really consider the cycle history and how long that could actually take.  Spoiler alert:  It’s always longer than you think.  Having been through this before, I can tell you, next year is not going to be better.

So, now what?  How do we get the most for the home in the current cycle?  Let’s look at what the stats tell us…

The majority of homes priced well and in demand are still selling within 30 to 60 days.  Pricing “higher to negotiate” will likely cost you time and money.  This is not the type of market for that strategy.  If you get an offer, even a low offer here’s what you want to do.

  1. Revisit the recent comps. Did other similar homes sell, or reduce to a level that the offer now makes a little more sense?  This does happen, especially if you’ve been on the market for a while.  If your agent is not keeping you up to date on this information, ask them to.
  2. Consider making a counteroffer anyway. It’s a tricky market with not a whole lot of certainty as to what is ahead.  Do not take it personally!  If you were on the buying side, you would probably be doing the same thing.  Instead, look at it big picture and keep the conversation going as long as possible.
  3. Get creative! Sometimes, price isn’t the only issue.  Is there another component of the sale you could use to gain some ground and make the offer more enticing to the buyer without cutting the price?  Price is a big factor, but sometimes not even the most important one.

Now is the time to be aware that lower offers are going to be the norm.  We are back to over 70% of all properties selling under asking price.  That’s just where we are.  It’s business, after all.

Hiring the right agent will make a big difference in your bottom line. 

Let me know if I can put together a winning strategy for you!

May OBX Update

Ilona Matteson May Market UpdateNow that we have 4 full months of data for 2025, let’s see how it compares to the same time last year. There are some noticeable changes to keep track of which is outlining the little by little deterioration of our current market.

Keep in mind, markets don’t drop overnight. If you pay attention, you can most certainly see it coming. The main reason these shifts take 5 to 6 years is due to the state of denial many sellers find themselves in at the beginning of the shift. Markets are fluid. You have to adjust as new information comes in if you want to net the most when selling in an actively changing market, such as what we have right now.

Here’s how each area breaks down:

Jan to Apr 2024  

Jan to Apr
2025

New Listings

1,294

1,351

*Inventory UP 5%
Price Reductions

770

933

*Price changes UP 29%
Sold Listings 

685

658

*Buyer demand DOWN 5%


This data tells us year-over-year inventory is creeping up, demand is slowing, but PRICING is
changing at a rapid pace. Homes are still selling within 30 days if priced right.

Buyers are making offers knowing the price correction is coming, and they are trying to build it in on the front end. Be prepared to start your listing strategy with a value forward stance on price. Do not try to build in a negotiation buffer, it will only cost you time on the market and an eventual price correction down the road.

Our statistics show us if you price it correctly and sell within 30 days, typically it will sell for 97.85% of asking price.

If you are thinking about buying or selling, contact me so we can create a winning strategy for your goals.

March OBX Market Report 2025

The impact of slowly rising inventory and decreased demand is starting to add up here on the Outer Banks.  Don’t get me wrong, homes in good condition, location and priced right are still selling very quickly.  We don’t have an overabundance of inventory, yet.  However, we are definitely seeing some markets shifting faster than others.

Here’s how each area breaks down:

Area Active Listings Sold/
Month
Month
 Supply
Corolla 161 10.6 15
Duck 33 3 11
S. Shores 32 5 6.4
Kitty Hawk 24 7 3.4
Kill Devil Hills 121 23 5.2
Nags Head 48 10 4.8

 

The relationship of inventory to number of homes sold per month gives us the absorption rate.  The absorption rate tells us how many months it would take to sell out the inventory at the current rate of sales.  That is a direct reflection of the “health” of a market, or describes what type of market we are in.  The chart below lists this out.  Based on this, you can see how each area is performing.

OBX Market Chart 2025

When shifting to a different market it’s common to see some areas performing differently than others.  If you consider the higher end markets will generally slow down first, and that is reflected here.

If you are thinking of selling in one of those markets, the time is now.

November OBX Update

Ilona Matteson - Outer Banks

November Market Update

Still a bit of a holding pattern in what supply and demand would still deem a “Normal Market”.

Normal is an inventory level of 4 to 6 months. We are right on the cusp of moving to a “Slow Market” where the advantage shifts over to the buyers in the market.

January 2024 November 2024
Active Inventory All 870 1187
Active Inventory Homes 424 595
Under Contract 24% 19.50%
Absorption Rate 5.4 6.7
SF Absorption Rate 4.3 5.3
Price Reductions/Month 171 271

If you would like a more specific analysis for your real estate goals, give me a call!

September Market Update

Illona Matteson's image for September Blog Post

We are just watching the numbers closely. You can really see the shift coming in little by little.

January 2024 September 2024
Active Inventory – All 870 1184
Active Inventory Homes – 424 586
Under Contract – 24% 21%
Absorption Rate – 5.4 6.4
SF Absorption Rate – 4.3 5.3
Price Reductions/Month – 171 307

If you would like a more specific analysis for your real estate goals, give me a call!

July OBX Market Stats

While there isn’t much change to report this month, I predict by October/November there will be more inventory and the beginning of a quantifiable shift in pricing. You know I’ll keep you posted! To see the full effect of the logarithmic path, I’m comparing January 2024 to July 2024.

Jan 2024 Jul 2024
Months of Inventory 4.8 5.9
Active Homes 492 700
% Under Contract 24% 21%
Price Changes/Month 171 232

 

image of OBX Market Cycles