2019 OBX Market Report

Being a Listing Specialist requires a certain level of understanding of the local market statistics. Taking an in depth look at the trends causing homes to sell is critical to knowing the big picture.

In the chart presented below, I’ve broken down the relationship between the following:

  • The number of days a home took to sell – which means receive a ratified contract
  • The percentage of final sales price to the original listing price
  • The percentage of final sales price to the listing price at the time of sale

Each of these figures on its own tells a lot, and when combined into a complete picture, tells us many more things. Here are the basic takeaways from this particular data:

  • Out of 2,142 total sales, 32% sold in 30 days or less
  • The homes selling in the fastest amount of time receive the highest percentage of asking price as the final selling price – 97%
  • Properties sold in 31 to 60 days make up 15% of all sold
  • Yet, it seems even these quick sales a small adjustment in price was needed
  • 47% of all properties sold last year did so in 60 days or less

With nearly half of all sales taking place in 2 months time, it presents a clear picture that buyers are ready and willing to take action when they find the right property. Selling at 97% and 95 of asking price, this tells us that price is the main attraction to their fast action. They see value and move quickly.

What does overpricing your home actually cost? Notice the bottom 20% of properties sold, took 6 months to over 1 year to sell.

  • Final sales price was 12% to 17% lower than the original asking price
  • Continue paying monthly for a home they no longer want to own
  • Any repair issues that may have popped up
  • Additional repairs requested from buyer during the sale from inspections
  • Missed opportunity cost from waiting it out

Overall what we can take away from this kind of detailed analysis is, pricing your home to fit the current market conditions will actually net you more in the end. This is why as a highly skilled agent, I’ve learned to always ask you the question – Is it more important to get your price, or to get the home sold?

I’ve studied the data and know, you’ll net more by approaching the market with a value-based price than by “leaving room to negotiate.” That is an outdated strategy that just doesn’t work anymore.

December 2019 OBX Market Report

This month I want to take some time out to go over from a linear perspective, why the Outer Banks market is still experiencing some challenges.  Below you’ll find a snapshot review from 2005 in three year increments to show how things have transitioned during this particular market cycle.

Year                Units sold      Average Price sold

2005                   2104               $555,973

2008                   1045               $427,718

2011                     1333               $370,569

2014                     1611               $370,351

2017                     1995               $385,774

2019                     1959               $401,186

Here’s what this tells us:

  • 2005 was considered the peak
  • 2008 was the beginning of the decline, starting with a 50% drop in units sold
  • 2011 – 2014 was the lowest point for price, showing a 32% drop for the overall OBX market (some areas it was a higher percentage)
  • Units sold has made an incredible rebound from the peak in 2005 with only a 7% difference in the number of homes sold from then to 2019
  • Average price has only recovered by 5% since 2011
  • Average price is still 28% less than the peak in 2005
  • In 8 years, the pricing has changed by only 5% for the entire market

You can see here that while we are selling almost as many homes as before, the appreciation has been extremely slow.  Thus, expecting the price of your home to change drastically in a short period of time on the Outer Banks has proven to be non-existent.

This can also explain why if you purchased a home on the Outer Banks between 2009 and 2017, there may not be much, if any change to the market value of your home.  This is more amplified on the Northern Beaches (Corolla, Duck, 4 Wheel Area) as those pockets of our market are still experiencing an excess of 14 months of inventory.

Without strategic timing, real estate still remains a long-term investment for maximum return.  If you have been thinking about selling your home, consider the following:  If this cycle mimics the last century of recorded history, we are right about year 11 of a 20 year cycle.  Based on that, we should start to see prices really making changes around 2023 – 2025.

Keep in mind though, buyers’ demands have changed.  They no longer want to put in sweat equity, they want homes move-in ready with updates already done.  If you want to wait out the market for the next up cycle, now is the time to start planning any maintenance and upgrades to make your home more valuable and saleable.  If you would like a list of where to best spend your remodeling dollars, send me an email and I will get that to you.  Construction costs have changed drastically since I first began my career in 1997.  Most projects have nearly doubled in cost.  It is prudent to get a trained professional to give you some guidance on how to get the most out of your home projects.

Lending Worksheet

Thinking of buying a vacation property or second home on the Outer Banks? Here’s a quick
look at the most important information to know as you begin the process. While none of these
are absolute hard and fast rules, here are some basic guidelines to create the easiest and best
experience.

Securing the best rate requires:

  • Credit scores of 740 or higher
  • Non-Conforming loans allow a 43% debt to income ratio, 45% on Conforming
    (exceptions apply)
  • Tangible assets are key (i.e.: checking, savings, 401K etc.)

Second Home MUST do’s for best experience:

  • 20% or more down payment
  • Live at least 50 miles away
  • Must have access at least 2 weeks of the year- no full-time tenants
  • Use a local lender – Out of town lenders won’t know what to do with the Bill of Sale,
    Vacation Rental Addendum and might use an appraiser who isn’t as familiar with the
    area
  • Don’t own another beach house in the area (some exceptions apply)

Investment Loan Quickies:

  • If you need the rental income to qualify for the loan it becomes an investment loan
  • Investment loans carry a higher rate, but the down payment can remain 20% (lower
    down payments carry higher rates)
  • The income to qualify will be determined by an appraiser. Appraiser will do an analysis
    of the reasonable rental income available and you can use 75% of that amount
  • Titling in an LLC will carry a higher interest rate

Best practices for any loan:

  • Flood insurance has to be escrowed and the 1 st years payment is required at closing
  • To waive escrows there is a .25% fee on loan amount due at closing
  • If you are self-employed you will need to fully qualify through underwriting to be sure of
    the amount qualified for
  • If you own multiple rental properties you will also need to be fully qualified up front to
    be sure
  • If you have declining income, the lender will take the worst of the last 2 years as the
    basis from which to work
  • Don’t buy anything requiring financing once you start the lending process

Best sources for down payment:

  • Mutual funds/stocks
  • Savings/Checking
  • 401K Loan – not counted in your debt to income ratio
  • Home Equity – will use full line payment for qualifying
  • Gifted funds can sometimes work

Worst sources for down payment:

  • Any funds that are untraceable or unseasoned
  • “Mattress Money”
  • Business funds will require additional documentation from a CPA

Mid-Year OBX Market Update

Here are the mid-year fun facts about the Outer Banks market:
– Inventory is up 12% – this is a little alarming since it was only up 7% last month
– Residential Sales are up 4% – this could be due to the smokin’ hot interest rates!!
– Distressed sales continue to decline, making nearly zero impact to the market
– There have been 75 new building permits issued so far in Dare County
– In 2018 there were a total of 131 for the year

Town specific notes of interest
– Corolla total number of sales YTD is pretty flat, up only 2%
– Duck total number of sales YTD is up 30%!!!
– Southern Shores is also flat at a rise of only 2%
– Kitty Hawk is similar at a rise of 3%
– Kill Devil Hills is going the opposite direction and is down 4%
– Nags Head is also an anomaly being down 19% in total number of sales YTD

While it looked to be a flat year through June, the sudden increase in properties under contract
looks to make for an interesting fall. Across the board rents seem to be down and traffic
doesn’t feel as thick this year. It’s not uncommon to see sales go up in a down rental year. I’ve
been selling since 1997 and I’ve seen this trend happen every 5 to 7 years.

A lot of people think it’s due to Air BnB or VRBO. I personally think it’s just one of those years
that people are taking more expensive, overseas trips. Doing something a little different this
year.

The Depreciation Factor When Selling

The Depreciation Factor When Selling Your OBX Beach Home

In the height of the real estate boom from 2002 to 2006, doing a 1031 Tax Deferred Exchange
was such a common occurrence. We think about it a lot more in a rising market. However,
even though the Outer Banks market is still in recovery mode, a 1031 exchange may still be a
very necessary process, even without massive profits from actual sales price. All due to one
word…depreciation.

Specifically the way it works is the gain, not the profit or equity, from the sale of your
investment/beach/second home could be subject to Federal and State taxes. Also subject to
federal taxes at the time of sale is the depreciation taken over several years on the property.
That amount is taxed at a whopping 25%!!! This could really sneak up on you!

Below is an example of how to determine a potential capital gain when selling without an
exchange.

Step 1: Calculate the Basis
$300,000 Original Purchase Price
+ $ 50,000 Improvements that haven’t been expensed in a previous tax year
– $ 60,000 Depreciation taken
$290,000 Net Adjusted Basis

Step 2: Calculate Capital Gain
$475,000 Sales Price today
– $290,000 Net Adjusted Basis
– $ 25,000 Cost of Sale (commissions, transfer tax, fees, etc)
$160,000 Realized Capital Gain

Step 3: Calculate Capital Gain Tax Due
$15,000 Recaptured Depreciation = 25% x Depreciation taken
$24,000 Federal Capital Gain Tax at 15% x Realized Capital Gain
$32,000 Federal Capital Gain Tax at 20% x Realized Capital Gain

Please Note:
* Income less than $39,375, the long term capital gains tax rate is zero
* 15% if income is less than $434,550 20% if income is more than $434,550
* This does not include any potential state capital gain taxes

What can you do if you want to sell and avoid paying Federal Capital Gains Tax?
– You can defer the federal tax by performing a 1031 exchange for a property of equal or
more value than the property you are exchanging, and acquiring the same.
debt/mortgage equal to or exceeding the debt on the relinquished property.
– You can move into the home and make it a primary residence for 2 of the last 5 years
and rollover up to $250,000 if single and $500,000 if married.
– You can reduce tax liability by doing some major improvements that are not expensed in
any previous tax year.

This is an overview of the process. For more detailed information on your specific tax
implications contact a tax professional. To find out more about doing a 1031 Tax Deferred
Exchange we recommend Realty Exchange Corporation at www.1031.us.

6 Reasons to List Your Home in the Summer

Although it sounds reasonable to think with all the guests coming, it would be better to just sell the home in the fall or spring, take a look at these six (6) reasons you could be missing out by waiting. Contact me today if you want more information!

1. Outer Banks Inventory

Inventory has been our biggest challenge in terms of pricing.  June, July, and August are historically the time of year when our inventory is the lowest.  Why not take advantage of that incredible opportunity? Lower inventory could mean higher prices.

2. High Volume of Visitors

The Outer Banks will have over 3 million visitors each year.  Obviously, the majority of those folks visit during the summer months.  We cannot get that kind of exposure any other time of year!

3. Perfect Time of the Season

The home is fully open and operational.  Buyers will have inspections done before closing.  When the house is winterized during the fall/winter there are extra costs to open the house back up for those inspections.  Right now, everything is up and running and easy to inspect and ensure to the buyer the home is in good condition.

4. Sweet Outer Banks Summertime

It’s a beach house!  When does the beach look the best?  Summertime of course. Your beach house will show the best with the sun shining, deck chairs out, pool open, hot tub running!  Buyers get excited about these things and it helps to sell your home.

5. Serious Inquiries

Buyers this time of year are serious about buying!  If a potential buyer is going to take time out of their much-anticipated vacation to look at your home, it means they are serious about buying.  They’re here with all decision makers too.

6. Outer Banks Rental Income & Fees

With the average transaction taking 45 to 60 days to close, sellers can collect most or even all of the rental income.  A late summer or early fall closing also means sellers don’t have to worry about fall maintenance and carrying the home through the winter months.

March 2019 OBX Market Report

Let’s take a quick look at the highlights of the market activity so far this year.

  • First Quarter residential sales are up by 4% from last year
  • Actual March sales are down from last March by 9%
  • Under contract homes are up 9% from last March
  • Inventory is on the rise. Up 9% from last March and the highest number of homes for
    sale since June 2017
  • Land sales are down 33% and average price went from $100,000 down 50% to $50,000
  • Distressed sales continue to fall with only 18 active listings in the entire area
  • New building permits last year total were 49, we are already at 33 for this calendar year
  • Overall rental companies are reporting a decline in the number of homes booked this
    year over last year

Summary: We had a slow start to the year for rentals because of the government shutdown.
Most of our visitors come from the VA/MD/DC area and with no income in January, fewer
vacations were booked. It does seem to be picking up some.

As predicted earlier this year, I am not surprised to see this activity report. We have solid
activity, but are not expecting a banner year, which is normal after coming off a few hot and heavy
years of activity. Nothing to worry about long term, just keep watching.If you feel like this might be the year to sell, but just aren’t sure, click here to read “What to do if you don’t HAVE to sell your home.”

What to do if you don’t HAVE to sell your home

So, what does all of this mean? Most property owners we speak to all say the same thing. “We
don’t HAVE to sell.” Which is very true, especially when a seller is not physically moving from
the home. The main reason they say that is because the pricing strategy presented in
alignment with the current market statistics is typically lower than they had hoped for.

It’s no secret, the Northern Outer Banks market is still in the midst of recovery, now with a
rising inventory. We’ve tracked these cycles for many decades and the results are always the
same. It’s a 20 year cycle. If the major down happened in 2009, we are merely half way
through before the next possible boom, based on recorded history.

Now, if you find yourself in the very common situation of having a home here on the OBX that
you aren’t using as much anymore, don’t like the current market price, and feel like you don’t
have to sell it, here’s what you need to know.

What exactly are my options if I don’t have to sell?

  1. 1. Recognize the big picture. Just because you don’t HAVE to sell, does not automatically
    mean that keeping the home is the best financial decision. Talk to your financial planner
    and tax advisor and get their opinion of the big picture financially.
  2. Consider the amount you personally use the home. If you’ve gotten to the point of
    only visiting the home once a year, it could actually end up costing you more in the long
    run to keep it. We have very extreme weather on the Outer Banks. Homes left alone
    with deferred maintenance can often times develop big ticket repair items the longer
    they sit.
  3. Place the home in a trust. If you have children who are available and willing to step in
    and take over the management of the home, there could be some tax advantages in
    your estate by leaving the home to them in a trust. Check with a tax advisor for more
    detailed information. I found this article helpful as a starter.
  4. Consider making improvements. Outside of the economic market conditions of supply
    and demand, one of the other reasons some homes are experiencing a challenge on
    pricing is due to being in the original state. Buyers today have very different
    expectations of homes than they did when I started in 1997. If you are planning to keep
    the home for a few more years, do the improvements, enjoy them, then sell when you
    are ready. One word of caution, consult a real estate professional first so they can help
    you maximize where to spend your money so it makes the most impact to a future
    buyer.
  5. Place the home as a year round rental. Yes, that means less income overall. It also
    means less expense. Tenants in a year round situation generally pay their own utilities,
    do the cleaning, change the filters and more. There is a huge shortage of affordable
    year round rental homes in the area. This is also something you can manage yourself,
    with very little time and energy. Hire a maintenance guy to check on the place and
    handle the minor issues that come up. If you’re already not using the house, why not
    have just one family enjoying it year round.
  6. Consider short term retirement in the home. So many buyers I’ve worked with over
    the years actually bought the home for future retirement. It’s unclear why more don’t
    actually do it. However, if you decided to just retire here for 5 years, enjoy the beach,
    do some improvements, the home could have a much different value then.
  7. Take a closer look at what the home is costing each year to own. This is probably the
    best advice I can give. More often than not, the amount needed to price strategically
    compared to the amount it will cost to own the home for another 3 to 5 years is usually the same. I know it can be challenging to drop that price another $25,000 in order to
    sell, but what will it cost you to own it annually for the next 5 years? That’s not
    including any major deferred maintenance that will come up along the way.

The truth is, timing is everything. If you’re ready to sell, take a serious look at these options
and decide the best course of action. First of all answer the most important question I
presented in the beginning….

Just because I don’t HAVE to sell, does that mean keeping this home is in my best financial
interests?

When you commit to looking at the big picture, as well as all other possible options and
calculate the best move for your situation. If you need help discussing these or any other
strategy, please feel free to reach out!

January 2019 OBX Market Report

The final numbers are in and as predicted, sales on the Outer Banks went a little flat. I wasn’t
expecting the rise in inventory to come along with it.

Reprinted with permission from OBAR is the following Director’s Report:
MLS Director Report – 2018 was a good year; however, they are some trends that bear
watching. Sales are flat (less than a 1% change) while listings in an Under Contract
status have declined sharply (9%). Inventory, on the other hand, is up (5%). Median
sale price, depending on area, is also flat.

Also worth noting is that specifically Residential Inventory (not including commercial properties
or vacant land) was actually up by 6% for the year.

If you didn’t read last month’s article, you can read it here. It’s a reminder that these real estate
cycles typically take 20 years to complete, at least according to 100 years of recorded history.
Since the cycle started in 2008/2009, we are only half way through. Holding on to a home in
this market, expecting it to improve in 12 to 24 months is probably not realistic. Looking for
change in 7 to 10 years is much more realistic.

If you are considering a long term investment here, prices are still low and rents are doing very
well! Interest rates are still around 5% and very reasonable. The outlook for 10 to 15 year
investors is strong.

As far as what we can expect for 2019? I would say more of the same. With rising insurance
costs, rising interest rates, stock market fluctuations, we will likely see the same amount of
activity for this year. Let’s just hope the inventory stays where it is.

If you’d like to see what the market value of your home is, contact me for a free evaluation.

December 2018 Outer Banks Market Snapshot

The big story for the Outer Banks Market as we inch closer to the end of the year is the decline in the number of homes selling, and the slight rise in inventory.  Here’s what we have:

  • Year over year November sales are down 25%
  • Annual sales are down 5%
  • Year over year November under contract is down 12%
  • Inventory is up by 5%
  • Sales in Corolla are down 12% overall this year

This is a dangerous combination.  With sales going down and inventory rising, it could certainly lead to another pricing correction for the market overall.

I get a lot of people asking why the Outer Banks market, specifically Duck and Corolla, has not recovered.  The primary reason is inventory.  Prices simply cannot rise when the market is carrying nearly 2 years of inventory.

I also want to offer a quick reminder of what typically happens in these cycles.  When we look at recorded history, it shows that these kinds of market cycles take 20 years from start to finish.  If we consider the main effects of the 2005 market crash started here in 2008.  That puts us only half way through.  There is nothing abnormal about this when nearly 100 years of history shows the same time frame through each experience.

I’ll tell you a quick story.  In 1988, a client bought a home in Sanderling for $345,000.  This was the top of the market for that time.  There had been a correction in 1986, yet didn’t affect the Outer Banks until 1988.  Shortly after his purchase, the market sharply corrected.  Ten years later, in 1998, I sold his home for the exact same price he paid.  Minus his selling expenses and various repairs, he did not come out ahead.  Fast forward to 2004, and that same home was offered nearly $600,000.  That’s how quickly things changed.

The point is, we are only half way through this cycle.  We are not experiencing the comeback of prices just yet.  It will happen again, as it always does, but it’s not likely to take place in less than 5 to 7 years from now.  That’s just how long these cycles take, and this one is particularly challenging due to the continued high inventory levels.

If you are thinking of selling, either have patience for another decade to pass, or go ahead and sell it now for what the market will allow.  Just remember, in another 10 years the home will be that much older and that much more maintenance required.

Nearly every day I speak to a seller who says, “We don’t HAVE to sell it.”  And yes, that’s true.  99% of the clients I work with are not in financial distress and truly don’t HAVE to sell it.  I encourage you to also ask this next question.  Just because you don’t HAVE to sell it, doesn’t mean that IT ISN’T the best financial move for you.  Really consider the big picture of keeping the home another 10 years, versus the disappointment of the price the market mandates at this time.  In the end, if you don’t HAVE to sell and don’t want to participate in today’s pricing, the truly best thing you can do is take the home OFF the market, which will help inventory levels go down.  That will help everyone in the long term.

As always, if I can be of further assistance to you, please reach out!