Hello and Happy New Year!

Outer Banks, NC Real Estate Resource
After a few years of a WILD RIDE, things are finally starting to stabilize here at the beach. A normal market (no real swing in value up or down) is defined by an inventory of 4 to 6 months. We are currently just under a 5-month inventory, putting us smack in the middle of that range. With this as our starting point, where might we be headed?
Pricing – Currently, pricing still feels on the high end. The 15 buyer deep multiple offer scenarios are long gone, but we haven’t quite seen a sharp change in pricing just yet. However, would you be surprised to know that even in the thickest part of the frenzy, still, 50% of all properties sold were for LESS than the asking price? Below is a comparison of what the market did in January of 2022, fast forward to November, and then the average for the entire year of 2022.
2022 Closings Jan % Nov % YTD%
Full Price 23.86% 22.05% 23.90%
Over List Price 21.05% 15.90% 25.54%
Under List Price 55.09% 62.05% 50.55%
PREDICTION #1 – 2023 by year’s end we will move to 80% of homes will sell for less than list price.
Activity – As I mentioned in the email, we are already seeing a 52% drop in the number of properties under contract as well as 50% drop in the number of sold from this same time last year. Under contract percentage of inventory hit a peak of 48% and is now down to 26%. So activity has SHARPLY moved downward. An inventory bump of only 10% would push us over a 6 month supply and that is when we will likely see a major effect in pricing.
PREDICTION #2 – By June/July, the inventory will peak to a 7 or 8 month supply and pricing will start to be greatly affected.
Rentals – With the airline industry crippled in personnel shortages, among other things, including cost, our rental season will continue to be very strong this year. People will prefer driving destinations over flights. Our own rental numbers continue to show a steady growth patter for 2023.
PREDICTION #3 – If you do desire to buy or sell, rental income will remain a good investment strategy.
Interest Rates – We are seeing rates right around 7% for conforming, unless you choose the ARM option for either 7 or 10 years depending on the lender. Banks right now are showing more favorable terms because they are able to designate more money to shelf these loans long term. We know the FED wants to slow the interest rate increases, but with the recent $1.7 Trillion bill passed, it’s unclear how they will do that.
PREDICTION#4 – It looks like rates will hover in the 6.5% to 7.5% range. If you want to take a chance on an ARM, that can get you lower.
Buyers – It’s no secret that the market is mid-cycle. All the economic factors are present. So if you want to sell your home in 2023, before things cycle back down, it’s important to understand the current buyer mindset. Fewer buyers are in the marketplace, and as inventory goes up, it will start to push prices down. However, I still believe real estate to be one of the best investments to make in an uncertain economy. Why? The value of the dollar is ever decreasing. Real Estate is a tangible asset. It has value beyond the “sales price”. It can generate passive income, be used personally, create some tax benefits, etc. I’m not worried about being able to find a buyer for your home. What I do know is that financial experts will advise buyers to pay less in anticipation of a pricing adjustment. This only means you have to truly strategize all aspects of the sale, not just price.
PREDICTION#5 – Condition, price, seller concessions for buying down points, lower due diligence offerings, staging the home, will become even more valuable negotiation points than we have seen in the last 2 years.
I’m personally excited for the market in 2023. This is when truly skilled agents get to shine! Negotiation skills and strategy will be more important, and so will having a professional on your side. If you have any questions about buying or selling, reach out!
Let’s talk about INVENTORY. Most people don’t realize that inventory level is the key determining factor for real estate prices. If I had a dollar for every time someone asked about the bridge in relationship to values, I would have a whole lot of dollars! And yes, there are a lot of factors that play into value.
For example:
However, inventory levels trump all other factors when determining value. Just 3 short years ago the inventory levels in Corolla were over 2 years. Now, it’s barely one month. The old faithful supply and demand is king when it comes to prices going up or down.
Let’s also realize these cycles historically (nearly 100 years worth of data) last for 20 years. The last cycle began in 2000. So regardless of COVID, we were due for an up market. I do believe that COVID accelerated what should have taken 3 years to get where we are into 2 years. That being said, the last up cycle lasted for 5 or 6 years. It’s not clear how long this one will last. Especially with everything going on, who knows.
What we do know is that watching the stats is the same as having a crystal ball. Nothing can change until inventory levels change. That doesn’t look to move any time soon. We are just beginning the spring market where our inventory usually increases by 30%.
Here’s the number of homes currently for sale and under contract for each area.
Area For Sale Under Contract
Corolla – 22 86
4 Wheel – 8 8
Duck – 13 23
Southern Sh 10 16
Kitty Hawk 9 8
KDH 12 53
Nags Head 12 26
These numbers still blow my mind! We all want to know what’s going to happen. Here’s what we can count on, what goes up, must come down. The big question is WHEN? My answer, watch the inventory and you’ll know. When we get back to 4 to 6 months, that’s when it will start.
Meanwhile, if you have any questions about buying or selling in this crazy market, give me a call!
I’ve got 3 updates to share this month:
Although it sounds reasonable to think with all the guests coming, it would be better to just sell the home in the fall or spring, take a look at these 5 reasons you could be missing out by waiting.
Happy April! I hope you had a wonderful Easter weekend. Beautiful weather has finally arrived at the beach.
I have a few interesting topics this month.
As part of my continued effort to provide you with the most relevant information, I wanted to reach out with some important updates regarding insurance for your Outer Banks investment. These changes primarily involve Frontline Insurance, which is considered one of the most affordable companies available.
If you are considering selling or buying, be mindful of the following:
This information is just to create more awareness. I have some good local contacts if you have further questions, just let me know.
This month’s update is short and not so sweet. The market activity is still very strong and has not changed…yet.
Big BREAKING MORTGAGE NEWS in the last few days is regarding the purchase of 2nd homes. A new Treasury Amendment now limits Fannie Mae on the acquisition of single-family mortgage loans secured by the second home and investment properties to only 7%. As a result, this could equate to as much as a half-percent higher rate on these loans. Click here for the full article.
No market is immune to these kinds of changes. If you’re wanting to purchase on the OBX, the time is now! Of course, that means we need more inventory. If you’re thinking of selling and want a complete analysis of what your home is worth, contact me today!
It’s no secret the real estate market on the Outer Banks is shifting. Even as we move into a seller’s market, keep in mind a majority of our home sales are secondary homes. This means more than 50% of our home buyers will spend up to 2 years searching for the right home. They can do that because they aren’t physically moving into the home.
Being a discretionary purchase, they have the time to wait for the right house. That means even if you have the upper hand in terms of lower inventory and potentially rising prices, buyers still want what they want. Your home can still sit on the market for a prolonged period of time if it’s not set up to sell in today’s real estate market.
We’ve put together a checklist of readiness to ensure your home can hit the market and sell for the best price in the fastest time frame. Consider the following market statistics:
If closed sales for January and current Under Contract numbers are at record highs, we could easily see 2020 hit the 2,000 single-family homes sold mark. That means we barely have half the homes on the market right now that could potentially sell this year.
The following checklist is designed to get you the most for your home in the current market:
Let’s face it, the last time we had this kind of market shift in 2000, a home built in 1985 was only 15 years old. Today, that home is now 35 years old. In the extreme weather environment, we have on the OBX, a lot can happen in 35 years. If your home is more than 10 years old, you need a pre-listing home inspection. The number one cause for deals to fall apart is a home inspection revealing more than the eye can see. Buyers get nervous and walk. When that happens, the entire world knows your home sold, then un-sold, and everyone wants to know why. The items discovered will most likely become a material fact and have to be disclosed to future buyers. If an inspection is done beforehand, major items can be addressed and taken care of. End of story. There is no reason to list your home blindly and set yourself up to negotiate the “unknown” 2 to 3 weeks into a sale.
Even if a home inspection reveals no issues, sometimes systems will be at the end of their life expectancy. Buyers today do not want to walk into automatic maintenance without expecting a deep discount. If your 20-year roof is on year 18, it is wise to replace it. There’s no guarantee you can add that cost to the top of your asking price, but what it can do is sway a buyer towards your property versus another. The number one concern for buyers today is condition. Your home does not become more valuable because the systems work. However, it does immediately become more saleable.
This should be a no-brainer, yet all the time I show or preview homes that look like they’ve been abandoned. Everyone likes things that look nice. Take an honest look at your home’s exterior and interior. One of the easiest spaces to turn off a buyer is the carport and outside shower area. Buyers say all the time, you can tell how well the owners have cared for this home by how those areas look. Clean up the leaves, sand, junk that can accumulate. Power wash the gunk off the decks and siding. Get the interior a nice spring clean. First impressions don’t generally get a do-over.
What will buyers see as they approach your home, climb the stairs and enter the front door? Is it inviting? Is the door rotted or rusted? Does the key work easily? Are there spider webs or overgrown plants and weeds? This will set the tone for the entire showing. Sometimes buyers will change their minds about seeing a home altogether if the entry isn’t pleasant. Be mindful of the best way to enter your home. If your electronic keypad is on a door that isn’t the best entry, insist on giving your agent a key to the best entrance and have buyers go in that way. I recently went into preview a $750,000 home that was quite lovely. The entrance had imported tile, great artwork and felt very welcoming. The agent gave me a keycode that opened a door to an empty two-car, cold, garage. This is not the first impression you want.
No matter what time of year you list your home for sale, take a good look at the landscape of your yard, which is the main aspect of curb appeal. Having branches scraping the side of your car as you pull into the driveway is not a good look! Do what you can to clean it up for whatever is appropriate for the season.
Whether you live in the home or it’s your vacation home, have a professional eye look and give advice on how to stage it to sell. Most people need to see space, rather than stuff, in order to envision themselves in your home. Less is more when it comes to wall hangings and nick-knacks. Updating bedspreads and shower curtains is an easy way to give the home a fresh look. If the home is being sold furnished, some fresh, beachy furnishings can make all the difference.
With the new HGTV culture, buyers expect homes to be already updated. This type of preparation can take several months to do. These are the things you want to plan 6 months to a year before you list your home for sale. Depending on whether you live there or rent, everyone can also get a chance to enjoy the upgrades as well. Before spending any money, decide what your budget is and have an agent come over to advise the best use of that money. Some updates will prove a better return than others. We talk to hundreds of buyers a year, so we have a clear idea of what will get you the most for your money. Be prepared though, construction costs have doubled in the last 10 years. You’ll want to really follow a plan to stay on budget and get the most out of it.
With the growing popularity of VRBO and Air BnB type of rental arrangements, there are some real challenges when selling. Those types of reservations, when done solely through the property owner, are automatically not transferrable when selling. If a buyer is relying on the income of your home to make the purchase, you could run into some real issues at the closing table. Even if you are renting through a traditional property management company, there can be cancellation fees you incur if the new buyer doesn’t stick with your rental company. It’s becoming increasingly more important to employ the proper timing strategy to sell, depending on the source of your weekly guests. Talking to an agent ahead of listing about how the transfer works will help avoid any major stresses once the home is under contract.
1450 Duck Road Duck, NC 27949
Work: (252) 261-6600 Cell: (252) 619-5225 Fax: (252) 261-2200
You will receive the most up to date Outer Banks news once a month like information on flood insurance, market stats and updates, bridge news, local happenings and more!