2023 Outer Banks Market Predictions

After a few years of a WILD RIDE, things are finally starting to stabilize here at the beach.  A normal market (no real swing in value up or down) is defined by an inventory of 4 to 6 months.  We are currently just under a 5-month inventory, putting us smack in the middle of that range.  With this as our starting point, where might we be headed?

Pricing – Currently, pricing still feels on the high end.  The 15 buyer deep multiple offer scenarios are long gone, but we haven’t quite seen a sharp change in pricing just yet.  However, would you be surprised to know that even in the thickest part of the frenzy, still, 50% of all properties sold were for LESS than the asking price?  Below is a comparison of what the market did in January of 2022, fast forward to November, and then the average for the entire year of 2022.

2022 Closings          Jan %                     Nov %                        YTD%

Full Price                     23.86%                        22.05%                        23.90%

Over List Price             21.05%                        15.90%                        25.54%

Under List Price          55.09%                        62.05%                        50.55%

PREDICTION #1 – 2023 by year’s end we will move to 80% of homes will sell for less than list price.

Activity –  As I mentioned in the email, we are already seeing a 52% drop in the number of properties under contract as well as 50% drop in the number of sold from this same time last year.  Under contract percentage of inventory hit a peak of 48% and is now down to 26%.  So activity has SHARPLY moved downward.  An inventory bump of only 10% would push us over a 6 month supply and that is when we will likely see a major effect in pricing.

PREDICTION #2 – By June/July, the inventory will peak to a 7 or 8 month supply and pricing will start to be greatly affected.

Rentals – With the airline industry crippled in personnel shortages, among other things, including cost, our rental season will continue to be very strong this year.  People will prefer driving destinations over flights.  Our own rental numbers continue to show a steady growth patter for 2023.

PREDICTION #3 – If you do desire to buy or sell, rental income will remain a good investment strategy.

Interest Rates – We are seeing rates right around 7% for conforming, unless you choose the ARM option for either 7 or 10 years depending on the lender.  Banks right now are showing more favorable terms because they are able to designate more money to shelf these loans long term.  We know the FED wants to slow the interest rate increases, but with the recent $1.7 Trillion bill passed, it’s unclear how they will do that.

PREDICTION#4 – It looks like rates will hover in the 6.5% to 7.5% range.  If you want to take a chance on an ARM, that can get you lower.

Buyers – It’s no secret that the market is mid-cycle.  All the economic factors are present.  So if you want to sell your home in 2023, before things cycle back down, it’s important to understand the current buyer mindset.  Fewer buyers are in the marketplace, and as inventory goes up, it will start to push prices down.  However, I still believe real estate to be one of the best investments to make in an uncertain economy.  Why?  The value of the dollar is ever decreasing.  Real Estate is a tangible asset.  It has value beyond the “sales price”.  It can generate passive income, be used personally, create some tax benefits, etc.  I’m not worried about being able to find a buyer for your home.  What I do know is that financial experts will advise buyers to pay less in anticipation of a pricing adjustment.  This only means you have to truly strategize all aspects of the sale, not just price.

PREDICTION#5 – Condition, price, seller concessions for buying down points, lower due diligence offerings, staging the home, will become even more valuable negotiation points than we have seen in the last 2 years.

I’m personally excited for the market in 2023.  This is when truly skilled agents get to shine!  Negotiation skills and strategy will be more important, and so will having a professional on your side. If you have any questions about buying or selling, reach out!

Hurricane Names for 2021 Season and Preparedness Checklist

Outer Banks Hurricane names 2021

Hurricane Preparedness

July 2017 OBX Market Update

Here are the highlights:

  • Total Sales: Total June sales – 279 Units – the highest monthly number of units sold since October 2005. Total Volume Sold – $427,942,964.
  • Under-contract: Units listed as under contract declined by 11% due to the record number of closings in June and the normal seasonal decline; however, with 410 units still listed under contract, the July sales figures should be noteworthy.
  • New Construction: As of May 2017, the number of new construction building permits were down 7% from 2016 (112 units vs 121 units). Building permit value was down by 3%. Quite a change from last month.
  • Days on the Market: For all residential properties listed in the MLS, the average Days on the Market was up slightly (3%) but down by 24% when compared with June 2016.
  • How Sold: In our market, 66% of all loans are conventional loans, 20% are cash, 6% are VA, 4% are FHA, 3% are Jumbo. USDAA and Other account for the remaining loans.
  • Distressed Sales: Distressed sales declined by 2% in June and accounted for just 5% of the total.
  • Inventories: Residential inventory was down by 13% in June. Lots / Land inventory was down by 16% in June.

*This information is reprinted with permission from the Outer Banks Association of REALTORS

Let’s break it down by area and price range: (Data through July 15)

Corolla

$200,000 – $400,000                               $401,000 – $600,000

46 for sale                                                      81 for sale

49 sold YTD                                                   51 sold YTD

7.5 buyers each month                                8 buyers each month

6 months of inventory                                 10 months of inventory

8 U/C currently                                             16 U/C currently

128 Days on Market                                     198 Days on Market

 

$601,000 – $800,000                               $801,000 – $1,000,000

53 for sale                                                      27 for sale

20 sold YTD                                                   7 sold YTD

3 buyers each month                                   1 buyer each month

18 months of inventory                               27 months of inventory

5 U/C currently                                             3 U/C currently

92 Days on Market                                       137 Days on Market

 

$1,000,000 – up

66 for sale

16 sold YTD

2 buyers each month

33 months of inventory

4 U/C Currently

102 Days on Market

 

Duck

$200,000 – $400,000                               $401,000 – $600,000

9 for sale                                                        33 for sale

9 sold YTD                                                     26 sold YTD

1.3 buyers per month                                   4 buyers per month

7 months of inventory                                  8.25 months of inventory

2 U/C currently                                             6 U/C Currently

133 Days on Market                                     120 Days on Market

 

$601,000 – $800,000                               $801,000 – $1,000,000

23 for sale                                                      20 for sale

9 sold YTD                                                     9 sold

1.3 buyer each month                                  1.3 buyers each month

17 months of inventory                               15 months of inventory

4 U/C Currently                                            2 U/C currently

81 Days on Market                                       149 Days on Market

 

$1,000,000 – up

27 for sale

7 sold YTD

1 buyers per month

27 months of inventory

2 U/C currently

186 Days on Market

 

Southern Shores

$200,000 – $400,000                              $401,000 – $600,000

15 for sale                                                      29 for sale

21 sold YTD                                                   18 sold YTD

3 buyers each month                                   2.7 buyers each month

5 months of inventory                                 11 months of inventory

4 U/C currently                                             4 U/C currently

72 Days on Market                                       94 Days on Market

 

$601,000 – $800,000                                $801,000 – $1,000,000

12 Active                                                        8 Active

4 sold YTD                                                     2 sold YTD

.6 buyers each month                                 .3 buyers each month

20 months of inventory                              26 months of inventory

1 U/C currently                                             1 U/C currently

259 Days on Market                                     74 Days on Market

 

$1,000,000 – up

12 Active

1 sold YTD

2 U/C currently

361 Days on Market

 

 

2016 Rental Report

I recently attended a meeting where a report was given from the Outer Banks Tourism Board.  There is a reported decline in bookings of about 8% across the board.  What they’re finding is two fold:

  • More Americans are traveling abroad/overseas this year as our dollar exchange is good in Europe and some other locations.
  • More and more visitors are waiting to reserve their homes until the specials come out, hoping to get deeper discounts.

Apparently some rental companies on the coast of South Carolina are experiencing the same occurrence.

If your home is lacking a few weeks, I would like to extend an offer to promote the house for you on my Facebook Business Pages and Twitter account, where I have nearly 2,000 followers collectively.   I can’t guarantee any results, but more exposure certainly can’t hurt.  Send an email to my Marketing Assistant Michelle at [email protected] with your house information and a link to it and we will get you in the rotation.

1378 Duck Road, Duck, NC 27949

1378 Duck Road info

Call me today!!

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Outer Banks Fall 2015 Market Report

October Ocean 2015With cooler temps each Fall come higher sales numbers.  Each year we see about a 25% increase in the number of sales versus the summer months.  It’s pretty obvious with the majority of homes being occupied and unable to be viewed.

We also know that most buyers of second/investment homes will consider the purchase for anywhere from 6 months to 24 months before actually writing an offer.  So it’s not uncommon for our summertime guests who decide to invest to re-visit in the fall and winter to purchase.

There are two main things I want to focus on in this update.  First is the status of things now.  Second, is the difference that 10 years and a very big cycle can make.

Status of the market right now:

(This info is for home sales only and compares September 2015 to September 2014)

  • The number of homes sold is up 11%
  • Average sales price is down 2%
  • Median sales price is up 4%
  • The number of homes in active inventory is down 11%

The bottom line?  More homes are selling, prices remain the same and inventory is just now starting to go down.  These are all very good signs for our market.  This is an important step in the process to getting back to a normal, growing market.  The process will still take a few years, but it’s good to be on the right track.

The reason this is so important is because we all remember still how good it was in 2004 and 2005 when prices were at their peak.  We also have to remember these cycles don’t happen overnight.  The impact of the market crash was tremendous.  It will take a very long time to fully recover from it.

Consider the difference 10 years makes:

(This data compares the calendar year 2004 to 2014 for home sales only)

  • We sold 749 FEWER homes in 2014
  • We sold $589 million LESS in Volume in 2014
  • The average sale is 26% LOWER than it was in 2004
  • Median sale price is DOWN 28% from 2004
  • Days on Market – are up MORE than 2 months

Those are some pretty major differences.  All in all what you need to know is if you’re ready to buy, prices and interest rates are definitely in your favor.  If you’re thinking of selling, the market is very active and we can get the job done.

The last few listings I took sold in less than 30 days.  When you price it right, it will sell.

Best Buys for June 2015

Contact Me About Any of These Properties!

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Best Buys for April 2015

Contact Me About Any of These Properties!

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New Listing! 3104 Columbia Avenue Kill Devil Hills, NC 27948

13New Listing!!
3104 Columbia Avenue
Kill Devil Hills, NC

MLS# 87201        $240,000

This charming beach box is located in a prime area in Kill Devil Hills. The garage was converted to a work area/laundry room/game area and additional bedroom with private bathroom. Take the interior stairs up to an open great room with kitchen and dining area. Two additional bedrooms are on the south side of the top floor with a hall bath. A large master bedroom and bath with walk in closet are on the north side. The fenced in back yard makes this a great choice for buyers with dogs or small kids. Plenty of room to play. Maintenance free vinyl siding is a plus!

Contact me for more details!

 
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Fall in Love with this Cozy Beach House in the Heart of Duck!

OBARMLS86752New Listing!!
124 Marlin Drive,
Duck, NC

MLS #: 86752        $325,000

You will love this cute and cozy beach house right in the heart of Duck. This home sits right in the middle of Marlin Drive. Easy access to the beach or the foot/bike path into Town for shopping and restaurants. Enjoy three bedrooms and 2 full baths on the top floor. Along with an open concept kitchen, living and dining area. Relax on the screened porch for shade or sun on the huge, open back deck. The ground floor offers an outside shower, storage and another large bedroom and bathroom. The septic was updated in 2005 to accommodate the additional bedroom. This home has been well cared for and it shows.

Never rented, just used by family and friends.

This is the perfect house to call your own for an incredible price in Duck!

Contact me for more details!

 
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