November OBX Update

Ilona Matteson - Outer Banks

November Market Update

Still a bit of a holding pattern in what supply and demand would still deem a “Normal Market”.

Normal is an inventory level of 4 to 6 months. We are right on the cusp of moving to a “Slow Market” where the advantage shifts over to the buyers in the market.

January 2024 November 2024
Active Inventory All 870 1187
Active Inventory Homes 424 595
Under Contract 24% 19.50%
Absorption Rate 5.4 6.7
SF Absorption Rate 4.3 5.3
Price Reductions/Month 171 271

If you would like a more specific analysis for your real estate goals, give me a call!

September Market Update

Illona Matteson's image for September Blog Post

We are just watching the numbers closely. You can really see the shift coming in little by little.

January 2024 September 2024
Active Inventory – All 870 1184
Active Inventory Homes – 424 586
Under Contract – 24% 21%
Absorption Rate – 5.4 6.4
SF Absorption Rate – 4.3 5.3
Price Reductions/Month – 171 307

If you would like a more specific analysis for your real estate goals, give me a call!

July OBX Market Stats

While there isn’t much change to report this month, I predict by October/November there will be more inventory and the beginning of a quantifiable shift in pricing. You know I’ll keep you posted! To see the full effect of the logarithmic path, I’m comparing January 2024 to July 2024.

Jan 2024 Jul 2024
Months of Inventory 4.8 5.9
Active Homes 492 700
% Under Contract 24% 21%
Price Changes/Month 171 232

 

image of OBX Market Cycles

How the NAR Settlement affects buyers in North Carolina

image of the Outer BanksYou may have heard in the news about the NAR Settlement, and there was a lot of bad information floating around.  Having been licensed in NC since 1997, teaching the real estate license law for 15 years, and a member of the Board of Directors for the Outer Banks Association of Realtors, I’m bringing a snapshot of what to expect as we approach the implementation date on August 17th.

Firstly, be aware that NC has had buyer agency in place since 1995.  Secondly, sellers in NC have never paid the buyer’s agent.  Our listing agreement has a section where sellers “acknowledge” the listing firm may split the compensation the seller pays the Listing Firm, and a disclosure of what that split will be.  Our local MLS then served as a binding and blanket offer of compensation from the listing firm to the selling firm.  So, in this state, we’ve really been doing it right the whole time.

However, the two main changes that could affect how you buy in NC are as follows:

  1. You will be asked to sign a written buyer agency agreement BEFORE being shown any home.
  2. You may be responsible for paying some or all the compensation for your buyer’s agent if the seller/listing firm offer none.

*Special Note:  Compensation has ALWAYS been negotiable and based on the services provided as established by each individual Firm.  As of this blog, we truly have seen only a handful of sellers choose to not offer or authorize a compensation to a cooperating firm.  We don’t expect there to be a big change in this.  Most sellers realize it is in their best interest to cooperate with buyers agents.

North Carolina still offers two types of Buyers Agency: Exclusive and Non-Exclusive.  The difference between them is explained here:

  1. Non-Exclusive – traditionally this was used in the beginning of a relationship when just getting to know each other. It doesn’t bind the buyer to paying any compensation but does disclose that compensation will be sought from the listing firm or seller directly.  That is still the case, however, if you desire to see a home with your buyer’s agent under this agreement and NO compensation is offered through the seller or listing firm, the agent is prohibited to show you that home.  You will either execute an exclusive agreement with your current agent, or contact the listing agent directly to see the home.  If you contact the listing agent directly you will be unrepresented.

The purpose of the non-exclusive agreement is to establish an agency relationship, with limited duties.  Buyers can sign this agreement with more than one agent as they conduct their search.  Beware this type of searching can result in the agents ending up in a procuring cause dispute.  So always be up front and honest with agents to avoid this situation.

  1. Exclusive – this type of agreement is more like an employment contract. You are hiring the agent to work exclusively on your behalf to find the right home, listed or not listed.  And as such, you are securing the compensation by agreeing to pay it.  Buyer’s agents will still seek compensation offers from listing agents and sellers, but if the offer of compensation is LESS than what is agreed in your exclusive agreement, you will be responsible for the balance.

If you are out with an agent touring multiple homes and have no written agreement, most likely the agent is not operating in compliance with the Settlement.  There are two exceptions:  they are not a REALTOR member subject to the settlement agreement, or all homes viewed are listed with the agent’s firm and you are unrepresented.

There are multiple benefits to interviewing and hiring a good Buyer’s Agent, especially in the Outer Banks market where the average price is $800,000.  That’s a big investment! Here are some of the reasons:

A good agent will….

  • Listen to your wants and needs and save time by finding the right home to match your criteria
  • Know about the local laws, restrictions and uses that could affect your ownership experience
  • Know the differences between areas to help find the right fit
  • Have great vendors to work with to get you pre-qualified, inspections complete and repair estimates, insurance agents, closing attorneys
  • Guide you through the nuances of the Vacation Rental Act
  • Work directly with your lender, insurance agent, property management company and closing attorney to manage the issues that come up between contract and closing
  • Remain objective and unemotional to negotiate the best terms for you
  • Have a solid understanding of the sales contract and how to best represent your needs
  • Communicate effectively, being available and promptly responding to calls and emails
  • Able to identify red flags in a home or process and provide good solutions

There’s a reason it takes 45 to 60 days from offer writing to closing a real estate transaction.  It is a full time job!  I have prepared a full presentation with valuable information.  If you are thinking of interviewing a great agent to find your perfect OBX home, give me a call!

2024 Second Half of the Year Weird Market Selling Strategy

As we approach the second half of the year, it’s important to notice the little shifts happening along the way.  Remember, real estate markets don’t crash overnight.  It happens slowly at first, then all of a sudden.  We are in the slowly at first phase.

Our market here gets insulated because it’s not a primary market.  Being a discretionary sale and discretionary purchase for the majority of transactions, it provides a lag time from when we start to see primary markets destabilize.

If you are thinking about what to do with your OBX investment home, you need to look big picture.  Consider first and foremost, just because you don’t HAVE to sell, does not automatically mean that keeping the home is in the best financial interest for your family.  Always consult your financial adviser for guidance.

Let’s now take a look at the two options, sell or keep.  Regardless of what you choose, this information will help you set up the best expectations for either choice.

Sell

  • Good news! Prices are still at record highs.  You have not missed the boat.
  • However, pricing strategy must remain fluid. No longer set the price and then 3 months later look at it.  If you want to maximize profit here, you must be the trend setter, not the follower.
  • Inventory is rising – up 29% from this time last year
  • Demand is dropping – down almost 10% from last year, and last year demand dropped 50% from 2022
  • Price reductions are increasing – in May 368 new listings came on and 287 listings had a price reduction
  • Must be negotiable – 66% of properties sold are below asking price.
  • Affordability is still the number one concern for buyers

If you employ a listing strategy with this in mind, you will maximize your return and get the home sold in a reasonable amount of time.

Keep

  • Remember how these cycles have worked over the years.
    • Boom 1985/86 – fell apart early 90’s – stagnant until 2000.
    • Boom again 2004/05 – fell apart 2008/09 stagnant until 2019/20.
    • Boom 2021/22 – 2023 activity dropped by half, pricing is just starting to crack with price reductions and under asking price sales.
    • If the pattern continues it could be stagnant again until 2035 or longer.
  • Rising Insurance as well as other increasing vendor costs.
    • be prepared for at least a 14% increase in dwelling policies and unknown yet for homeowners.
    • Service providers are increasing costs: lawn care, pool/hot tub maintenance, linens, etc
  • Return to pre-pandemic rental income.
    • It starts with lower vacancy rates. 2024 is already seeing only 90% booking.
    • Next will be set lower rates – discounts are already happening.
    • If you stay, the cost to own will go up, with income to support going down.
  • Prepare for capital improvements.
    • Tightening insurance underwriting regulations are requiring updates to stay insured. Roof, water heater, etc
    • Continued lack of demand for homes that have not been updated. Especially as inventory increases, you’ll need to have prime condition and updating to be chosen.
    • Reality of a major storm this year or next. Let’s face it, no one likes to say it, but we haven’t had a hurricane since 2018.  Generally, we see a 6 to 9 year pattern.

If you do decide to keep the home through the next cycle, let’s at least put together a plan to get your home updated and where to best spend the money.  I also have a list of trusted vendors who can help you get things done.

Now that you have the big picture, let me know if I can be of any help as we navigate this next market shift.

May OBX Market Update

May OBX Market UpdateIn a nutshell, the market here is changing…slowly…but surely.  These types of cycle shifts don’t happen all at once.  Fortunately, because I study the market every day, I can help you see it coming.  After all, you can get out of the way of what you don’t see!

Here are the basics we are watching:

Inventory

Total Everything – up 27% since January (currently over 1,000 listings)

           Homes, Single Family and Condos/Townhomes – up 24%

Activity

Absorption Rate has gone from 4.8 months to 5.5 months since January

This means it would take longer to sell the homes we currently have on the market.  Once this goes over 6 months, we enter a Slow Market

Price

53.5% of homes are still selling within 0-30 days, of those…

97% of asking price is what they are selling for

67% of homes are now selling under asking price

Basic supply and demand economics tell us that when supply is inching up, demand is inching down that prices will start to waiver.  How long will this current market last?  We just have to keep watching. We are noticing more price reductions coming in and fewer multiple offers.  This is an active situation.  Stay tuned for next month’s report!

If you have thought about buying or selling, let me know so we can plan your strategy.

First Quarter 2024 Comparison to First Quarter 2023

OBX Real Estate Market - Crystal Ball and upward graphWhat a difference a year makes!  Long story short, there are some BIG moves that are happening.  I’ve talked before about algorithmic decay.  This chart here is exactly that!  Little, by little, by little, then bang.  That’s how markets change.  Tale as old as time, song as old as rhyme, it’s almost as good as a crystal ball.

Anyone saying the real estate market on the Outer Banks is not changing is just not paying attention.

But, look here, and you decide:

Image of the differences between 2023 and 2024 in the OBX Real Estate Market

We are on the cusp of a price shift potentially starting this fall.  Here are the facts about our market:

  • Insurance costs are rising and coverage dropping
  • Interest rates are not changing any time soon
  • Rental income is back to pre-pandemic levels

If you are on the fence about selling your home, your window is closing before we start to see quantifiable price shifts.  Call me today to discuss the best strategy for selling in today’s changing market.

How NOT to set the listing price of your home.

151 Salt House Road, CorollaA lot of agents will do presentations on how they came up with a price for your home. It is a task that does require some skill. The challenge of course is getting the seller to agree to the pricing suggestions.

Many sellers come into the meeting with a general idea of what they want for the home, which is helpful. However, here are a few ideas on what NOT to do when you decide to sell your Outer Banks home in today’s market.

  • Tax Assessment Don’t confuse your county tax assessment with market value. Your tax assessment is for the purpose of assessing a tax amount to you for the purpose of revenue to the county. It doesn’t in any way suggest that’s what a buyer is willing to pay or a seller is willing to sell for. Most importantly the assessment on your home right now is 4 years old! On the Outer Banks they only re-assess every 8 years. Because it’s 4 years old, it also doesn’t take into consideration any improvements that have been done since the last assessment.
  • Old Appraisal Appraisals are only good for the day they are written. What? Yes, that’s correct. Considering that anything and everything could change tomorrow, an appraisal can only be valid for one day. If you have a year-old appraisal and want to base your price on some reflection of that, you might find yourself the highest bidder of your home. I mean I was a size 8 years ago, but that’s not exactly going in my dating profile for today!
  • Old Sales in the area – All agents have heard it… “Well, my neighbor sold last year for $30,000 more.” Markets never stay the same. It’s an ever-changing environment, which is why consulting with a good agent who studies home prices every day is the best way to get closest to current market value.
  • Recent Improvements – We’ve also all heard… “Well I have a new roof, HVAC and carpet. I want to ask $extra to cover those costs.” The fact that you’ve done these “maintenance” items is great. It shows you’ve taken care of the home. The problem is all houses need a roof, HVAC and carpet. In this market, that can make your home more saleable, not necessarily more valuable. Buyers expect the basic components to be in good condition already. What you can ask more for are upgrades. Changing vinyl to tile or carpet to hard wood, or laminate to granite are all upgrades.
  • Basing the price on your needs – We would all love to get the seller the most money possible. That’s part of our job. However, we can only sell the home for the true market value. Just because you NEED to get $50,000 at closing doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. You have to consider all the current factors in your marketplace and if those point to a lower price, you needing that money will not cause a buyer to pay it if the value isn’t there. You may need to adjust your plans based on what’s realistically going to come out of the sale of your home. These are hard conversations, but a good agent will not be afraid to spell out the truth.
  • Stuck on a previous market value –The last few years have been monumental. It was a fast- rising market and prices skyrocketed. Now we are in a more “normal” market. Prices aren’t rising or falling at a tangible rate just yet. Mostly because inventory is still too low. However, don’t get complacent. Markets ALWAYS cycle. What goes up, must come down. I predict this fall pricing will look differently than it does right now. So, pay attention to CURRENT trends and not what happened the last year or two.
  • Focus only on Price – So often I hear, “I don’t have to sell, I’ll just wait if I have to sell at that price.” Selling a home is based on a LOT of decisions, not just the price for it. No one wakes up and turns to their spouse and says “Honey, the house is worth $X, we have to sell it.” Selling is based upon life changes, new needs, maintenance costs, jobs, marriages and so many more things that are related to the way we live our lives. It’s sometimes concerning when I see a seller refuse to sell based solely on the price. That means they are putting that dollar value above the benefits selling the home can bring to the family. Don’t let the emotional response to the price create a “wish I would have” moment.

Now that we’ve covered what NOT to do, if you need help pricing your Outer Banks home for a prime spot in our market today, certainly let me know how I can assist you!

Septic Issue Explained

OBX Realtors Conversation on New Septic RulesFrom what I have been told, there were many meetings amongst lots of organizations, Homebuilders Association and NC Realtors are included in the reshaping of the wastewater regulations. Negotiations were settled, the meeting concluded, and everyone went home. The night before the vote, the bill is sent out. Unbeknownst to all signings, changes were made in favor of the Septic Tank Association’s lobbyists, resulting in the incoming “shituation” we have now. This DID come from the private sector and the only way out of it is legislatively.

SO WE HAVE TO ACT!

Our local Realtor Association had a meeting on January 30th with the Dare Supervisor for Environmental Health, Josh Coltrain. A video of that meeting can be seen here. It is 36 minutes long, but well worth your time to watch.

If you don’t have time to watch, here’s the basic breakdown and major takeaways:

  • The regulations are retroactive. Doesn’t matter when your home was built, this now
    applies to EVERYONE.
  • Any LOT platted BEFORE January 1, 1983, with a septic for 4 bedrooms or less can still qualify for a conventional gravity system.
  •  Any LOT platted BEFORE January 1, 1983, with a septic for 5 bedrooms or more is mandated to show a designated repair area and is affected.
  • Any LOT platted AFTER January 1, 1983, regardless of number of bedrooms is mandated to show a designated repair area, and is affected.

So basically, if you are on a LOT with a designated repair area, these regulations apply to you. If your system fails for ANY reason:

  • The local Environmental Health Soil specialist is no longer allowed to use the best professional judgment.
  •  You now MUST use the designated repair area. No matter if it’s covered by live oaks, uphill, downhill, at the back of the lot. Doesn’t matter, it’s the new spot.
  •  You now MUST move to an engineered system. This is a cost factor of TEN TIMES more in most cases than a conventional gravity system.

With 90% of LOTS in Dare County having an onsite wastewater system, this impacts an enormous group of homes. This is simply not sustainable.

The meeting that Josh Coltrain was to attend in Raleigh this week was postponed. I don’t have the new meeting date at this time. What I do have is an email you can send questions to for
Josh to take to this eventual meeting to ask. That email is [email protected]. Feel free to send any real life scenarios you may have encountered, burdens these regulations have already
caused or just questions you want answers to from our legislators.

In the meantime, the NC Senator for District 1 (Dare) is Norman Sanderson and his information can be found here
Bobby Hanig, NC Senator for District 3 (Currituck) can be found here

I’ve already been in touch with both and have had great response from Sen Hanig’s office. NC Realtors has legislative committee members hard after this issue as well. This is a statewide
issue so if you have any connection to any NC State legislator, let them know this must change!

WE NEED TO MAKE SOME NOISE!
If you want to find out how this specifically impacts your home personally, call the Dare Environmental Health Department at 252-475-5080. Or Currituck at 252-232-6603.

I’ll keep you informed as I have more updates.

February Market Report

With all the insurance and septic news, I’m going to be brief on this month’s market report and just give you the numbers straight up. With only one month in, there isn’t a lot to analyze anyway.

Not much has changed since December, except in Kill Devil Hills showing the only noticeable difference. Which is not unusual for this time of year. We will compare again in April and see if anything changes.

Area Active Now Active Dec

Area  Active Now  Active Dec
Corolla 81 88
Duck 16 17
Sshores 16 17
Kitty Hawk 15 18
KDH 49 60
Nags Head 43 40

Not a lot going on just yet, but don’t worry things will heat up in a few weeks! I’ll be watching.

If you’d like more information on buying or selling, please reach out.