June Market Report

First let’s talk about banking.  Two major players (Citizens and Key Bank) recently pulled out of all mortgages in resort markets.  If you remember in March I wrote about the FANNIE MAE requirements for second homes that is making it extremely undesirable to get a conventional loan for a second home (higher rates, larger down payments, etc).  This means banks doing conventional loans have to add those loans to their balance sheet as they can’t be sold to FANNIE MAE without the extra high costs, which no one wants to do.  This caused these two banks to pull out of the resort markets across the US.  Will more banks follow?  I suspect at some point they will have to.

What happens if buyers can’t get a mortgage for a second home?  Or they become so scarcely available they price themselves out of possibility?  Do we become a cash only market?  Time will tell!

Meanwhile, rising rates have pushed buyer demand extremely low, and yet inventory is just as low if not lower.  This strange anomaly is the only thing stopping prices from plummeting down.

For example, here are the number of homes sold from Jan to May for the past 3 years:
                 Duck    Corolla         KDH,KH,NH
2023           29            82                      172
2022           68          136                     294
2021            58         241                      355
Conversely, take a look at current inventory levels
               Duck             Corolla            KDH,KH,NH
SFRES    14                     45                              52
The lack of demand indicates the prices should be affected by now.  However, so many homeowners either purchased with cash or have an interest rate of 3% or less.  I read an article the other day that 90% of all mortgages in the US are under 5%.  Who is going to sell and buy something else at today’s higher rate of 7%?  Not many, apparently!

The one thing that could cause inventory to jump this fall is the struggling rental market.  Whether it’s inflation, unemployment, or just being cautious, this year’s rental reports are showing some real struggles.  Across the country Airbnb owners are reporting 25% drop in bookings.  Most owners are making adjustments to the weekly rates to entice bookings.  Let’s just say it, the COVID rental bubble is officially over.  Back to the way it was before.  So, this could cause some of the short term buyers banking on high rental returns to throw in the towel and sell, while they can still get fairly good prices.

Either way, it’s going to be an interesting year for sales.  There are several things to watch, mortgage availability, rental performance, and increasing supply.  We could end up with a “perfect storm” this fall!

If you are thinking of buying or selling, call me to discuss the perfect strategy to fit your needs.

 

Outer Banks Market Update – March 2023

As of right now, the Outer Banks is experiencing what is considered to be a “normal market”.  That means we are not seeing prices change in any significant way up or down.  While prices are still at what is considered to be somewhat inflated, there’s not been real measurable changes so far.  Secondly, we still have a balanced level of inventory.  A normal market is considered to be a demand level of 4 to 6 months of inventory.  We are sitting right in the middle at 5 months of inventory.  This means the demand is steady and supply is still rather low.  In comparison at the peak times in 2021 and 2022, we had just a 2-month inventory.

This begs the question, where are we headed?  There are 3 factors I’m watching to help determine that.  What’s great about Beach Realty is we watch the statistics every single week.  It’s just as good as having a crystal ball. The numbers change in a gradual way that you can actually see the shifts coming if you’re paying attention, which we are!

Factor 1 – Mortgage Applications

Year over year nationwide mortgage applications to buy a home has fallen 41%.  In just a YEAR!  It’s currently at the lowest level in 28 years right now.  That’s even worse than the mortgage crash that happened in 2008.  Coupled with data from NAR, only 29% of recent home purchases are cash.  The most obvious cause is rising interest rates and still inflated home prices.  As a second home market, over 70% of our home sales are a discretionary purchase.  It’s a decision buyers can wait on, especially if they think changes are coming soon.

Factor 2 – FNMA and Second Homes

About a year ago Fannie Mae basically got out of the second home business.  Wanting to pull support from second homes and focus more on first time home buyer programs they negotiated a deal with the Mortgage Bankers Association to drastically increase rates on second homes.  Which at the time didn’t seem too objectionable on conforming loans because the conforming loan limit was $548,250.  With the average second home here being near $700,000, most buyers wouldn’t be affected.  Now the limit is $726,200 for a conforming loan, coupled with the most attractive rates being a now 75% LTV, the rates shot up over 7% with one point.  Making it even more expensive than ever to buy a home on the Outer Banks with a conforming limit mortgage. I don’t know the exact percentage of second home mortgages that are sold to Fannie Mae, but I think an educated guess would be MOST of them.  The only solution is for mortgage brokers to keep the loans on their books and try to offer more attractive rates.  Who knows how long that will last and how many lenders will participate.  I only know of one broker with that program right now.

Factor 3 – Rising Inventory

As buyer demand continues to soften due to rates and prices, inventory will start to creep up this spring and summer.  That could lead us directly into an inventory level over 6 or 7 months by fall.  That pushes us back into a buyer’s market.  If rental receipts drop this year, as expected, this fall we could see prices take a very noticeable hit.  How much is yet to be determined.  However, with as high as prices rose over the last few years, even a 10% drop would likely still put the home higher than pricing was in 2019.  So all is not lost, for this year at least.

If you’re thinking about selling, NOW is your window.  Give me a call to discuss further.

Happy New Year from the OBX

Hello and Happy New Year!

Happy New Year from the OBXWhat an interesting few years in the real estate world, and the world in general!  I got to spend a good bit of time with my niece and nephew over the last 18 months and do a little bit of traveling.  After 26 years in the business, I was so grateful and fortunate to have the opportunity to still assist some new and past clients while enjoying that precious time with family!
Market Update – I’m excited for what’s to come in 2023, and I’m sure you’re curious about what the market climate is right now.  Here’s a link to my 2023 Real Estate Market Predictions.  Hint, under contract and sold properties are already down 50% from this time last year.  What do you think will happen next?
Suggestions – As I gear up to write these informative messages to you, I’d like to know if there’s any specific topic you want to know more about.  Message me with your ideas!
Construction Projects – If you are interested in doing any work to your home this spring, I have a carpenter who actually has the next few weeks open.  His skill level is vast and can handle most small to moderate-sized jobs.  Flooring, decking, windows, some siding jobs, bathrooms, drywall, etc.  Contact me for more information.
2023 Goals – It is my goal to help 33 families buy or sell on the Outer Banks this year.  If you or anyone you know is interested, I would love to help!

What To Expect When Expecting … To Buy a Home on the OBX

What to expect when you’re expecting…to buy a home on the Outer Banks!

Navigating the home buying process can be a complex process. Knowing in advance what to expect regarding the condition of the home can make it a lot smoother. Here are the main things to consider regarding this process.

1. Create realistic expectations on condition. In most cases these homes are anywhere from 20 to 40 years old. The main reasons the condition might not be where a buyer is expecting it are:

  • We live in an environment that has harsh weather and it is tough on these homes
  • Most homes are rented anywhere from 15 to 25 weeks a year with multiple families occupying them. Wear and tear is going to happen
  • Since this isn’t the primary home, owners aren’t seeing it every day and often aren’t aware of what needs to be done
  • No one else is telling them about things that need to be addressed
  • Most homes are owned for several decades and owners get to an age where it’s more difficult to do the work themselves
  • Finding and managing good contractors from a distance is a challenge, especially as owners age
  • Sellers have disengaged from the property – this happens for many, many reasons.

2. It is standard language in our Offer To Purchase contract for North Carolina that buyers are purchasing the home “AS-IS”.

Yet many buyers are never told this. When you make an offer to purchase a home you need to factor in the condition/maintenance items that you can already visibly see into the offer price. Once you settle on a price and go under contract, it’s important to remember those items have already been accounted for.

So many times we see great deals go awry because the buyer is never educated on how to handle the home inspection results. This can create some unnecessary difficulties
and even result in the buyer terminating the contract on a great home, simply because they didn’t understand the process.

Here’s the actual language from the contract:

Paragraph 4(c) Buyer acknowledges and understands that unless the parties agree otherwise, THE PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD IN ITS CURRENT CONDITION. Buyer and Seller acknowledge that they may, but are not required to, engage in negotiations for repairs/improvements to the Property.

As you can see, it is not mandatory, nor really expected for the seller to agree to repairs after the initial agreement is signed. It is imperative that a thorough, on-site review of the property is conducted prior to making the initial offer so that all visible maintenance items are considered in the pricing strategy. The goal when listing a home is to have it priced in relation to those items to begin with. However, it is important to understand value is relative from person to person.

3. What exactly is the purpose/scope of a home inspection? There are several things to consider about the home inspection process. The primary function of a home inspection is the following:

  • Find hidden defects
  • Building code check – for information purposes. It is not realistic to require a seller to bring every outdated code up to par
  • Professional opinion of the functionality of the main systems of the home
  • Expanded review of the home (attics, roof, crawl space, etc)
  • Inspectors are paid to find problems. No home is perfect and items will be found commensurate with the age of the home. It’s important to have that expectation up front.

4. Because of the nature of the in depth inspection, it is not uncommon for unexpected issues to be revealed. How do we then handle the unexpected?

  • First, quickly remember Paragraph 4(c), the seller is not under any obligation to do anything at all.
  • We need to quickly organize some quotes so we know exactly what we are dealing with, even if the buyer is going to take on the repairs.
  • We have to decide whether we want the seller to actually fix the issues or if we want to receive a credit at closing instead. There are pros and cons to both of these.
  • We need to share the report with the seller so they can be educated on the condition of things
  • Recognize once these items are discovered they become a material defect that will have to be disclosed to any future buyers, should the buyer decide to walk away.
  • Prioritize the list of repairs that are important, rather than just asking for the entire list to be addressed. Especially since we already factored into our pricing strategy the items we could already see.
  • Understand that perfect condition will be reflected in the price. Chances are the home is already priced commensurate to the condition and age.

Main walkaway points:

  • Be realistic – you’re not buying a brand new home
  • Be flexible and willing to compromise – no house is going to be perfect
  • Weigh out the options – don’t lose a great house over a few needed repairs

Do you still need a LIVE real estate agent?

Beach Realty and Costruction Agent of the Year 2012As the article I read recently proclaims, America’s favorite springtime sport does not involve a stadium, peanuts or cracker jacks. It is browsing the real-estate market.

Zillow is a great tool if you’re a novice to the market and just want to look around an area, city, or use a zip code to look at property. However from my recent experiences with several clients there is nothing that beats a good agent.

Buying a house is really hard work these days.  Between flood insurance issues, the never ending and increasingly more difficult lending process, navigating the 11 plus addenda page legal contract, and the home inspection issues that arise…going this process without a proven professional will ONLY result in frustration and a deal not closed.

The fact is, YOU already have a full time job.  So do I…dealing with all of these issues.  It used to be that we would advertise, find a buyer, negotiate the terms and then turn it over to the attorney to close in 30 days.  Boy those were the days!  Not today.  I’m finding that I’m more needed in the transaction at day 20 to 45 than even before negotiation.

Sadly most of the lending problems don’t show up until the last minute.  The flood insurance issues don’t pop up until the appraisal is done and elevation certificate is issued or turned over.  It’s not the same to buy a house today, as it was when I started my career nearly 18 years ago.  We had a simple 2 page contract then!

Zillow is not in a position to assist with any of these issues.  Only a full time, professional real estate agent with lots of experience is going to be able to successfully navigate the way from contract to closing.  Finding the buyer is the easy part…getting the deal closed is where the blood, sweat and tears come in.

Financially Zillow looks even less attractive, at least to me. They are expected to lose 27 million this year. A loss that is double of last year. Wall Street loves the stock and it has done well for many but a company losing double of last year’s earnings is not for me.

In my humble opinion, you cannot beat the real life experience of a live real estate agent.