November OBX Update

Ilona Matteson - Outer Banks

November Market Update

Still a bit of a holding pattern in what supply and demand would still deem a “Normal Market”.

Normal is an inventory level of 4 to 6 months. We are right on the cusp of moving to a “Slow Market” where the advantage shifts over to the buyers in the market.

January 2024 November 2024
Active Inventory All 870 1187
Active Inventory Homes 424 595
Under Contract 24% 19.50%
Absorption Rate 5.4 6.7
SF Absorption Rate 4.3 5.3
Price Reductions/Month 171 271

If you would like a more specific analysis for your real estate goals, give me a call!

July OBX Market Stats

While there isn’t much change to report this month, I predict by October/November there will be more inventory and the beginning of a quantifiable shift in pricing. You know I’ll keep you posted! To see the full effect of the logarithmic path, I’m comparing January 2024 to July 2024.

Jan 2024 Jul 2024
Months of Inventory 4.8 5.9
Active Homes 492 700
% Under Contract 24% 21%
Price Changes/Month 171 232

 

image of OBX Market Cycles

How the NAR Settlement affects buyers in North Carolina

image of the Outer BanksYou may have heard in the news about the NAR Settlement, and there was a lot of bad information floating around.  Having been licensed in NC since 1997, teaching the real estate license law for 15 years, and a member of the Board of Directors for the Outer Banks Association of Realtors, I’m bringing a snapshot of what to expect as we approach the implementation date on August 17th.

Firstly, be aware that NC has had buyer agency in place since 1995.  Secondly, sellers in NC have never paid the buyer’s agent.  Our listing agreement has a section where sellers “acknowledge” the listing firm may split the compensation the seller pays the Listing Firm, and a disclosure of what that split will be.  Our local MLS then served as a binding and blanket offer of compensation from the listing firm to the selling firm.  So, in this state, we’ve really been doing it right the whole time.

However, the two main changes that could affect how you buy in NC are as follows:

  1. You will be asked to sign a written buyer agency agreement BEFORE being shown any home.
  2. You may be responsible for paying some or all the compensation for your buyer’s agent if the seller/listing firm offer none.

*Special Note:  Compensation has ALWAYS been negotiable and based on the services provided as established by each individual Firm.  As of this blog, we truly have seen only a handful of sellers choose to not offer or authorize a compensation to a cooperating firm.  We don’t expect there to be a big change in this.  Most sellers realize it is in their best interest to cooperate with buyers agents.

North Carolina still offers two types of Buyers Agency: Exclusive and Non-Exclusive.  The difference between them is explained here:

  1. Non-Exclusive – traditionally this was used in the beginning of a relationship when just getting to know each other. It doesn’t bind the buyer to paying any compensation but does disclose that compensation will be sought from the listing firm or seller directly.  That is still the case, however, if you desire to see a home with your buyer’s agent under this agreement and NO compensation is offered through the seller or listing firm, the agent is prohibited to show you that home.  You will either execute an exclusive agreement with your current agent, or contact the listing agent directly to see the home.  If you contact the listing agent directly you will be unrepresented.

The purpose of the non-exclusive agreement is to establish an agency relationship, with limited duties.  Buyers can sign this agreement with more than one agent as they conduct their search.  Beware this type of searching can result in the agents ending up in a procuring cause dispute.  So always be up front and honest with agents to avoid this situation.

  1. Exclusive – this type of agreement is more like an employment contract. You are hiring the agent to work exclusively on your behalf to find the right home, listed or not listed.  And as such, you are securing the compensation by agreeing to pay it.  Buyer’s agents will still seek compensation offers from listing agents and sellers, but if the offer of compensation is LESS than what is agreed in your exclusive agreement, you will be responsible for the balance.

If you are out with an agent touring multiple homes and have no written agreement, most likely the agent is not operating in compliance with the Settlement.  There are two exceptions:  they are not a REALTOR member subject to the settlement agreement, or all homes viewed are listed with the agent’s firm and you are unrepresented.

There are multiple benefits to interviewing and hiring a good Buyer’s Agent, especially in the Outer Banks market where the average price is $800,000.  That’s a big investment! Here are some of the reasons:

A good agent will….

  • Listen to your wants and needs and save time by finding the right home to match your criteria
  • Know about the local laws, restrictions and uses that could affect your ownership experience
  • Know the differences between areas to help find the right fit
  • Have great vendors to work with to get you pre-qualified, inspections complete and repair estimates, insurance agents, closing attorneys
  • Guide you through the nuances of the Vacation Rental Act
  • Work directly with your lender, insurance agent, property management company and closing attorney to manage the issues that come up between contract and closing
  • Remain objective and unemotional to negotiate the best terms for you
  • Have a solid understanding of the sales contract and how to best represent your needs
  • Communicate effectively, being available and promptly responding to calls and emails
  • Able to identify red flags in a home or process and provide good solutions

There’s a reason it takes 45 to 60 days from offer writing to closing a real estate transaction.  It is a full time job!  I have prepared a full presentation with valuable information.  If you are thinking of interviewing a great agent to find your perfect OBX home, give me a call!

2024 Second Half of the Year Weird Market Selling Strategy

As we approach the second half of the year, it’s important to notice the little shifts happening along the way.  Remember, real estate markets don’t crash overnight.  It happens slowly at first, then all of a sudden.  We are in the slowly at first phase.

Our market here gets insulated because it’s not a primary market.  Being a discretionary sale and discretionary purchase for the majority of transactions, it provides a lag time from when we start to see primary markets destabilize.

If you are thinking about what to do with your OBX investment home, you need to look big picture.  Consider first and foremost, just because you don’t HAVE to sell, does not automatically mean that keeping the home is in the best financial interest for your family.  Always consult your financial adviser for guidance.

Let’s now take a look at the two options, sell or keep.  Regardless of what you choose, this information will help you set up the best expectations for either choice.

Sell

  • Good news! Prices are still at record highs.  You have not missed the boat.
  • However, pricing strategy must remain fluid. No longer set the price and then 3 months later look at it.  If you want to maximize profit here, you must be the trend setter, not the follower.
  • Inventory is rising – up 29% from this time last year
  • Demand is dropping – down almost 10% from last year, and last year demand dropped 50% from 2022
  • Price reductions are increasing – in May 368 new listings came on and 287 listings had a price reduction
  • Must be negotiable – 66% of properties sold are below asking price.
  • Affordability is still the number one concern for buyers

If you employ a listing strategy with this in mind, you will maximize your return and get the home sold in a reasonable amount of time.

Keep

  • Remember how these cycles have worked over the years.
    • Boom 1985/86 – fell apart early 90’s – stagnant until 2000.
    • Boom again 2004/05 – fell apart 2008/09 stagnant until 2019/20.
    • Boom 2021/22 – 2023 activity dropped by half, pricing is just starting to crack with price reductions and under asking price sales.
    • If the pattern continues it could be stagnant again until 2035 or longer.
  • Rising Insurance as well as other increasing vendor costs.
    • be prepared for at least a 14% increase in dwelling policies and unknown yet for homeowners.
    • Service providers are increasing costs: lawn care, pool/hot tub maintenance, linens, etc
  • Return to pre-pandemic rental income.
    • It starts with lower vacancy rates. 2024 is already seeing only 90% booking.
    • Next will be set lower rates – discounts are already happening.
    • If you stay, the cost to own will go up, with income to support going down.
  • Prepare for capital improvements.
    • Tightening insurance underwriting regulations are requiring updates to stay insured. Roof, water heater, etc
    • Continued lack of demand for homes that have not been updated. Especially as inventory increases, you’ll need to have prime condition and updating to be chosen.
    • Reality of a major storm this year or next. Let’s face it, no one likes to say it, but we haven’t had a hurricane since 2018.  Generally, we see a 6 to 9 year pattern.

If you do decide to keep the home through the next cycle, let’s at least put together a plan to get your home updated and where to best spend the money.  I also have a list of trusted vendors who can help you get things done.

Now that you have the big picture, let me know if I can be of any help as we navigate this next market shift.

May OBX Market Update

May OBX Market UpdateIn a nutshell, the market here is changing…slowly…but surely.  These types of cycle shifts don’t happen all at once.  Fortunately, because I study the market every day, I can help you see it coming.  After all, you can get out of the way of what you don’t see!

Here are the basics we are watching:

Inventory

Total Everything – up 27% since January (currently over 1,000 listings)

           Homes, Single Family and Condos/Townhomes – up 24%

Activity

Absorption Rate has gone from 4.8 months to 5.5 months since January

This means it would take longer to sell the homes we currently have on the market.  Once this goes over 6 months, we enter a Slow Market

Price

53.5% of homes are still selling within 0-30 days, of those…

97% of asking price is what they are selling for

67% of homes are now selling under asking price

Basic supply and demand economics tell us that when supply is inching up, demand is inching down that prices will start to waiver.  How long will this current market last?  We just have to keep watching. We are noticing more price reductions coming in and fewer multiple offers.  This is an active situation.  Stay tuned for next month’s report!

If you have thought about buying or selling, let me know so we can plan your strategy.

First Quarter 2024 Comparison to First Quarter 2023

OBX Real Estate Market - Crystal Ball and upward graphWhat a difference a year makes!  Long story short, there are some BIG moves that are happening.  I’ve talked before about algorithmic decay.  This chart here is exactly that!  Little, by little, by little, then bang.  That’s how markets change.  Tale as old as time, song as old as rhyme, it’s almost as good as a crystal ball.

Anyone saying the real estate market on the Outer Banks is not changing is just not paying attention.

But, look here, and you decide:

Image of the differences between 2023 and 2024 in the OBX Real Estate Market

We are on the cusp of a price shift potentially starting this fall.  Here are the facts about our market:

  • Insurance costs are rising and coverage dropping
  • Interest rates are not changing any time soon
  • Rental income is back to pre-pandemic levels

If you are on the fence about selling your home, your window is closing before we start to see quantifiable price shifts.  Call me today to discuss the best strategy for selling in today’s changing market.

Beat the Rates!

There are two possible ways to get the best rate possible, even with Fannie Mae sticking it to second home buyers!

The first is a 2 part mortgage. 

One lender, Drew Wright has a program at FNB where you do a 60% first mortgage at an incentive rate similar to that of a first home buyer, and then a second mortgage (home equity loan) of 20% at an even lower rate, with a 15-year amortization.

What he found with his calculations is not only a cost savings on interest but also an increased equity position due to the 15-year amortization.  Click here for a quick recorded message about the process/savings or email me and I’ll forward to you a written version.

The second option is a delayed financing program.

In this scenario, the buyer pays cash for the property, which can potentially save you money in initial negotiations, and then within 6 months of closing you cash out with this loan.  Because it’s not considered a new purchase, they are offering advantaged rates.  And it allows for a 30-year amortization, which a home equity does not.

Either way, if you want to invest in a beach home now, here are two great ways to save some money!  Call me to set an appointment and discuss a strategy that works for you!

The “Raw Truth” about the OBX market right now.

It’s no secret the real estate market is in very bad shape right now.  And in an effort to be as up-front as possible about the pros and cons, I wanted to create this quick list of the main things to consider before buying or selling.

One of the biggest questions I get as an agent is around timing.  When is the right time to buy or to sell?  Truthfully, there is not a one-size-fits-all answer to this.  The best time is when you want to.  Rarely do we have clients who HAVE to buy or sell out of some distress.  That’s just not the norm.  So, does it make sense for YOU to buy or sell right now?  Let’s look at the raw truth.

  1. Outer Banks homes have the ability to generate quite a nice rental income. If you want to insure your long-term capability to own the home, only look at homes with income that is enough to cover the mortgage.  If it’s not going to cover at least that part, it may not be the right house for you.
  2. OBX home purchases are primarily a lifestyle choice. It’s not the norm to make bank on rental income, so only buy a home you know you will get a lot of personal use from.  If it’s not really ideal for your family, you won’t use it.  That time spent is priceless.  Be sure it fits your future family, too.
  3. With banks failing as what seems to be a regular occurrence now, real estate is an actual tangible asset. While the prices do fluctuate, it will never go to zero.  The inflationary dollar is in real trouble.  Why not park some cash in real estate, especially with passive income and personal use on the table?
  4. However, real estate appreciation or value is NOT capable of instant liquidity. Unless you consider 30 days instant.  Pulling liquidity out of real estate takes some financial investment and, most importantly, time.  If you need liquid cash fast, this is not the right investment.
  5. MAINTENANCE IS MANDATORY. Let me say that again.    Do not become one of those lax owners who collects the money and does nothing to the house for 20 years.  It will only cost more later.  The environment here is harsh.  Annual maintenance to keep the home in top condition is expensive.  Be prepared for that, or just buy raw land instead.
  6. While we benefit from low taxes here, insurance is most definitely on the rise! It may soon be unaffordable for many.  And, there is talk of no longer offering coverage for natural disasters.  I can’t imagine they get away with that, but be aware it’s being talked about. To be properly insured could be pushing $15,000 for many homes these days.  It’s nothing to take lightly.  Make sure you aren’t currently under-insured.  Construction costs for a new build START at $300/sq.ft. now!  (I hope you were sitting when you read that)
  7. Interest rates aren’t forever; you can refinance! Granted, you will need equity in the home to do that, so be aware it does come with some risk if that is your plan.  You will need to refinance before the market price eats up your 20% down payment, or it will require more cash to make it happen.
  8. As a Long-term investment plan, real estate is actually very low risk – high reward. Even if someone bought in the last boom of 2005, just 16 years later, even they would have made a handsome profit.  Not to mention 15 or 20 years of someone else paying your mortgage…all that equity for you to capitalize on at the end.

If you would like to discuss your specific circumstances and find out the best timing to either buy or sell, just contact me and we will go through everything you need to know!

August Market Update 2023

August on the Outer Banks

We are closely watching the main stats on supply (up 33% since January) and demand (down 44% since January).  Part of that is watching more specific pockets of activity to glean a closer insight into future trends.  One of those trends I’ve noticed in my near 30 year career is that of high-end home sales.

Take a look at the numbers for Duck and Corolla.

Homes sold $2M and over:

2019 –              6

2020 –              26

2021 –              64

2022 –              51

2023 –              17 YTD  (Likely on track for 27 total)

    • Even if we end up at 27 sold, that will be a decline of 47% year over year.
    • Number of price reductions to get homes sold is going up; 60% of properties sold are under list price, compared to 51% last year.
    • Median days on market for the high-end sales has gone from 21 days to 93 days year over year.
    • There are currently 30 homes for sale in Duck and Corolla $2M and over. With basically 2.4 buyers a month this is over a year worth of inventory.

With interest rates rising, insurance costs rising, rents stabilizing to pre-pandemic times, it’s really clear that a shift in pricing has to take place.  The timing of this is what’s left to be seen.  This strange anomaly of still very low inventory (although is starting to slowly climb) is keeping us stuck in limbo.

If you’re thinking about selling, let’s talk about what your home’s value may look like in this market.

July Market Update

Happy 4th of July on the Outer BanksMid-year is upon us and not much has changed since the last report.  I did notice an interesting trend regarding CASH in our marketplace.  Here’s the deal.  There have been 136 home sales in Duck and Corolla since January.

Of those 136 home sales:

  • 32 Cash
  • 13 Jumbo Loans
  • 91 Conventional Loans

A conventional loan amount is $726,200.  With the typical 20% down, that means a purchase price of around $875,000.

  • Only 53 of the 136 homes sold were under $900,000
  • 83 homes sold over $900,000 up to $6,300,000
  • 13 were jumbo loans
  • 22 were cash
  • The average price is $1,251,000
  • The median sales price is $992,500

A jumbo loan amount is anything over the $726,200.  There were only 13 of those reported.  There were 48 Conventional loans in the $900,000 and up price range.  This means that 48 buyers out of 83 brought enough cash to the table to get their mortgage at or under $726,200.

To paint a clear picture – 32 cash buyers, 48 mostly cash buyers.  That’s 80 buyers (60%) who brought a ton of cash to the closing table to buy a home on the Outer Banks.  Including the highest sale of the year so far – $6,300,000 ALL CASH!!!!  This just seems amazing to me. (Here’s a link Click Here to View Listings to that home if you want to see what $6.3M gets you)

This is a clear indication that buyers have no problem parking cash in a beach home right now.  I mean, why not?  Let’s look at the 3 main reasons this could be a good idea.

  1. Rental income – If you choose to rent, the income will at the very least cover your mortgage. That means, future equity you reap, all paid by SOMEONE ELSE.
  2. Bank Failures – With banks failing across the country, and the Dodd-Frank Bill legalizing, if not mandating, “bail-ins” a lot of people don’t feel safe keeping their cash susceptible. Rather, they are investing in a tangible asset, and one they can enjoy themselves and have others pay for!
  3. Inflationary Fiat Dollar – Let’s get real, the price of real estate will NEVER go to zero. As inflation spikes even more and more out of control, the dollar is tumbling closer and closer to zero.  It seems buyers are hedging their bets on the tangible asset of real estate versus the tumbling value of the dollar.

We haven’t even begun to see the effects of the commercial real estate crisis looming.  This is widely affecting regional banks who are holding the notes on these buildings that are sitting empty in record numbers across major cities.

Don’t get me wrong, my message is not of doom and gloom.  What’s going to happen is going to happen.  My point is, what is your best move?

If you are considering selling, there are cash buyers waiting for your home.  We do have investment vehicles where you can put your money and AVOID capital gains tax in the meantime.  Contact me for more information.

If you are thinking about buying, get off the fence and don’t let the interest rates deter you.  You won’t have much competition buying right now and there are some great opportunities out there!