How does inventory truly affect the real estate market? In a big way!!

Take a look at these two charts outlining the absorption rate for each location. FYI – absorption rate is a breakdown of how many months it would take to sell out the current inventory based on number of homes selling each month. This is important because it is the primary factor in determining if there is a rising, stable, stagnant or declining market (see graph below for more explanation).

As you can see, every location has experienced a decline in the amount of available inventory, some a very dramatic and sharp decline.  This is the precursor to the next step, rising prices.  It’s important we see prices rise gradually, over time, or we will experience another cycle like we saw in 2005.  I don’t think anyone wants to do that over again.

Bottom line, if you are on the fence about buying or selling, jump!  The market is ready for you.  To strategize to your specific needs, please contact me.

Being a Listing Specialist requires a certain level of understanding of the local market statistics. Taking an in depth look at the trends causing homes to sell is critical to knowing the big picture.

In the chart presented below, I’ve broken down the relationship between the following:

• The number of days a home took to sell – which means receive a ratified contract
• The percentage of final sales price to the original listing price
• The percentage of final sales price to the listing price at the time of sale

Each of these figures on its own tells a lot, and when combined into a complete picture, tells us many more things. Here are the basic takeaways from this particular data:

• Out of 2,142 total sales, 32% sold in 30 days or less
• The homes selling in the fastest amount of time receive the highest percentage of asking price as the final selling price – 97%
• Properties sold in 31 to 60 days make up 15% of all sold
• Yet, it seems even these quick sales a small adjustment in price was needed
• 47% of all properties sold last year did so in 60 days or less

With nearly half of all sales taking place in 2 months time, it presents a clear picture that buyers are ready and willing to take action when they find the right property. Selling at 97% and 95 of asking price, this tells us that price is the main attraction to their fast action. They see value and move quickly.

What does overpricing your home actually cost? Notice the bottom 20% of properties sold, took 6 months to over 1 year to sell.

• Final sales price was 12% to 17% lower than the original asking price
• Continue paying monthly for a home they no longer want to own
• Any repair issues that may have popped up
• Additional repairs requested from buyer during the sale from inspections
• Missed opportunity cost from waiting it out

Overall what we can take away from this kind of detailed analysis is, pricing your home to fit the current market conditions will actually net you more in the end. This is why as a highly skilled agent, I’ve learned to always ask you the question – Is it more important to get your price, or to get the home sold?

I’ve studied the data and know, you’ll net more by approaching the market with a value-based price than by “leaving room to negotiate.” That is an outdated strategy that just doesn’t work anymore.

This month I want to take some time out to go over from a linear perspective, why the Outer Banks market is still experiencing some challenges.  Below you’ll find a snapshot review from 2005 in three year increments to show how things have transitioned during this particular market cycle.

Year                Units sold      Average Price sold

2005                   2104               $555,973

2008                   1045               $427,718

2011                     1333               $370,569

2014                     1611               $370,351

2017                     1995               $385,774

2019                     1959               $401,186

Here’s what this tells us:

• 2005 was considered the peak
• 2008 was the beginning of the decline, starting with a 50% drop in units sold
• 2011 – 2014 was the lowest point for price, showing a 32% drop for the overall OBX market (some areas it was a higher percentage)
• Units sold has made an incredible rebound from the peak in 2005 with only a 7% difference in the number of homes sold from then to 2019
• Average price has only recovered by 5% since 2011
• Average price is still 28% less than the peak in 2005
• In 8 years, the pricing has changed by only 5% for the entire market

You can see here that while we are selling almost as many homes as before, the appreciation has been extremely slow.  Thus, expecting the price of your home to change drastically in a short period of time on the Outer Banks has proven to be non-existent.

This can also explain why if you purchased a home on the Outer Banks between 2009 and 2017, there may not be much, if any change to the market value of your home.  This is more amplified on the Northern Beaches (Corolla, Duck, 4 Wheel Area) as those pockets of our market are still experiencing an excess of 14 months of inventory.

Without strategic timing, real estate still remains a long-term investment for maximum return.  If you have been thinking about selling your home, consider the following:  If this cycle mimics the last century of recorded history, we are right about year 11 of a 20 year cycle.  Based on that, we should start to see prices really making changes around 2023 – 2025.

Keep in mind though, buyers’ demands have changed.  They no longer want to put in sweat equity, they want homes move-in ready with updates already done.  If you want to wait out the market for the next up cycle, now is the time to start planning any maintenance and upgrades to make your home more valuable and saleable.  If you would like a list of where to best spend your remodeling dollars, send me an email and I will get that to you.  Construction costs have changed drastically since I first began my career in 1997.  Most projects have nearly doubled in cost.  It is prudent to get a trained professional to give you some guidance on how to get the most out of your home projects.

Here are the mid-year fun facts about the Outer Banks market:
– Inventory is up 12% – this is a little alarming since it was only up 7% last month
– Residential Sales are up 4% – this could be due to the smokin’ hot interest rates!!
– Distressed sales continue to decline, making nearly zero impact to the market
– There have been 75 new building permits issued so far in Dare County
– In 2018 there were a total of 131 for the year

Town specific notes of interest
– Corolla total number of sales YTD is pretty flat, up only 2%
– Duck total number of sales YTD is up 30%!!!
– Southern Shores is also flat at a rise of only 2%
– Kitty Hawk is similar at a rise of 3%
– Kill Devil Hills is going the opposite direction and is down 4%
– Nags Head is also an anomaly being down 19% in total number of sales YTD

While it looked to be a flat year through June, the sudden increase in properties under contract
looks to make for an interesting fall. Across the board rents seem to be down and traffic
doesn’t feel as thick this year. It’s not uncommon to see sales go up in a down rental year. I’ve
been selling since 1997 and I’ve seen this trend happen every 5 to 7 years.

A lot of people think it’s due to Air BnB or VRBO. I personally think it’s just one of those years
that people are taking more expensive, overseas trips. Doing something a little different this
year.

Let’s take a quick look at the highlights of the market activity so far this year.

• First Quarter residential sales are up by 4% from last year
• Actual March sales are down from last March by 9%
• Under contract homes are up 9% from last March
• Inventory is on the rise. Up 9% from last March and the highest number of homes for
  sale since June 2017
• Land sales are down 33% and average price went from $100,000 down 50% to $50,000
• Distressed sales continue to fall with only 18 active listings in the entire area
• New building permits last year total were 49, we are already at 33 for this calendar year
• Overall rental companies are reporting a decline in the number of homes booked this
  year over last year

Summary: We had a slow start to the year for rentals because of the government shutdown.
Most of our visitors come from the VA/MD/DC area and with no income in January, fewer
vacations were booked. It does seem to be picking up some.

As predicted earlier this year, I am not surprised to see this activity report. We have solid
activity, but are not expecting a banner year, which is normal after coming off a few hot and heavy
years of activity. Nothing to worry about long term, just keep watching.If you feel like this might be the year to sell, but just aren’t sure, click here to read “What to do if you don’t HAVE to sell your home.”