A lot of people have been asking me why the market has suddenly taken a turn. Fortunately this time, it’s a really good turn! The answer is quite simple if we take a look at the history of these real estate cycles.

I’ve been saying for over a decade now that these cycles, in recorded history, generally take about 20 years each turn. This is proven true over and over for the last 80 plus years. So, if we take a look at the last few cycle timelines, it just makes sense for this to be happening right now.

1985/6 – Real estate was booming – then – stock market issues, S&L crisis began
1988/9 – Things really fell apart – prices were at an all time high.
1998 – Prices started to return to the pre-boom spot (I specifically remember an oceanfront lot in Sanderling that we couldn’t give away for $250,000)
2000 – Activity went through the roof – the 10% ratio was introduced – property was selling fast, but no discernible increase in pricing, as the recovery was still in place.
2003 – 2005 – All hell broke loose. Prices soared, inventory was low, multiple offers on almost everything. We all remember those years.
2008/2009 – Once again, 20 years later another mortgage crisis and the whole thing fell apart.
2010 – 2019 – Very volatile times, especially for the northern beaches.
2020 – Once again, 20 years later we have another BOOM in activity, some areas are seeing a little boost in price, but overall no real trackable difference. It’s coming though!

All that being said, if you are thinking about buying – rates and prices are still quite reasonable. Income is high. I wouldn’t wait.

If you have been wanting to sell, get this…as of this week there are 850 properties under contract and only 792 single family homes active for sale. This is what anyone watching would call the “tipping point”.

I have seen in the last couple of weeks, multiple homes that have been for sale for YEARS, finally going under contract. Pay attention friends, it’s about to be another wild ride!

Here are some weekly stats to consider: (I’ve always said who needs a crystal ball when you track the statistics. This tells us everything we need to know.)

A new strategy is now needed to meet your real estate goals. If you would like to discuss the best strategy for you, please contact me right away!

For 2020, it looks like good news for the OBX market finally!  Some spots are really on fire right now.  My prediction is we should see some pretty steady growth in the area for the next 3 to more likely 5 years.  This is right in line with the 20 year cycle I’ve mentioned before.  If you remember 2000, we had the big building boom, we started seeing inventory levels drop and noticed a feeling of something big happening.

This is the same feeling we have right now.  Inventory levels are low, interest rates are super low and activity is on the rise.  Here are the specifics:

• January residential sales were up 22% over January 2019
• January 2020 had the highest January sales numbers since 2005
• Under contract numbers for January are up 18% from Jan 2019 and are even up 17% just compared to December 2019
• Residential inventory is down 11%

Let’s now look at how each area is performing:

Corolla

306 Active Listings      36 Under Contract      10.5% of inventory selling

Duck

68 Active Listings        21 Under Contract      24% of inventory selling

Southern Shores

47 Active Listings           9 Under Contract      17% of inventory selling

Kitty Hawk

35 Active Listings        18 Under Contract      35% of inventory selling

Kill Devil Hills

101 Active Listings      44 Under Contract      31% of inventory selling

Nags Head

121 Active Listings      44 Under Contract      27% of inventory selling

While Corolla is still behind the curve, I do feel like this may be the last year it’s struggling.  It’s about time for a turn around.

If you are thinking of selling now, or in the next year or two, please give me a call so we can discuss what needs to be done to get your home ready for the market.  Buyers needs have changed quite a bit.  To ensure a fast sale for the most money, you’ll need to put your home through my proven checklist of readiness.

What’s interesting about this time of year, is that we can really see the major trends going on in
the marketplace for the calendar year. I’m highlighting 3 specific points for this analysis.

Inventory
Inventory levels on the Outer Banks, specifically northern beaches, have been particularly
challenging for our market. The fact is, in Duck and Corolla, there are little to no primary sales
taking place. That is, no one is physically moving into or out of that area. Those kinds of sales
are crucial to market health because those people “HAVE” to buy and sell. The truth is, 100% of
the sales that take place in those areas are discretionary.

Nearly every seller we meet says the same thing…”We don’t have to sell.” Which is very true.
You don’t have to sell because you’re not making a physical move, nor are you in financial
distress. It’s important to recognize that 99.9% of sellers we work with, don’t HAVE to sell.
There’s a common misconception that pricing your home to sell in today’s market is the same
as discounting it to force it to sell. That’s simply not true. Today’s market in Duck and Corolla
simply has an oversupply of inventory and an under-supply of buyers. That’s the bottom line.
It’s a resort market where all sales are discretionary. Period. I encourage you to ask the
following question. Just because I don’t have to sell, does that mean keeping the home is in
the best financial interests of myself/family/long term plan? That’s what it really boils down
to. I know it’s difficult to swallow the prices today’s market requires, but consider the whole
picture before making a final decision.

The price in these kinds of markets are 100% dependent on the principle of supply and demand, because buyers don’t HAVE to buy until they find the home that ticks all the boxes for them.
Consider this in Corolla:
– Corolla has 294 homes currently for sale.
– 189 homes have sold so far this year; that’s 19 sales a month
– 19 buyers will buy each month and they have 294 to choose from
– 26 Oceanfront homes sold this year in Corolla
– That’s 2.6 buyers a month
– There are currently 53 oceanfront homes for sale in Corolla

Consider this in Duck:
– Duck has 128 homes currently for sale
– 104 homes have sold so far this year; that’s 10 sales a month
– 10 buyers will buy each month and they have 128 to choose from
– From $400,000 to $800,000 there are 52 homes currently for sale
– 47 have sold this year in that range; 4.7 buyers a month
– 4.7 buyers will buy each month and they have 52 to choose from

This is why inventory is the biggest indicator of value in the market right now. We have seen
major improvement in inventory levels over the last few years. This year, we are seeing that
inventory move back up, even just slightly. What does this mean? It means that appreciation is
not happening any time soon, and, that depreciation is still a very real possibility. I don’t report
this to be negative, just to be realistic. Waiting out the market is not a short term endeavor.
Bottom line…inventory is the single biggest challenge in the northern Outer Banks market.
Until that changes, your price won’t either.

Days on Market
The shining point of our market has been the amount of time it takes to get a home that is
priced right, sold. Priced right mostly means priced for its condition. Condition has become the
single greatest factor in a buyer’s decision. They will bypass location for an updated home
almost every time. For more information on the impacts of condition, click here.

The days on market number has gone DOWN again this year by another 20%. This is the third
year in a row this number has dropped by 20% or more.
What does this mean?
– Buyers are watching and waiting for the best value. They study the market for 18
months or more before making a decision to buy. When they see a home that is a good
value, they act quickly and with near full price.
– If your home is on the market for more than 118 days, buyers don’t consider it to be a
good value.

The real estate market is fluid. Pricing your home on one day based on the competition is only
as good as that competition stays the same. As homes sell and adjust their price, you have to
flow with it. In this kind of market, you can either lead with an aggressive price and sell, or,
follow the price others set for you as they sell. Why leave your pricing up to someone else’s
motivation?

Total Sales
Not only did the number of homes going under contract drop by 19% for October, the total
number of sales year over year is down by 10%. Blame the hurricane, the election, whatever
you like. It doesn’t change the facts.

Here’s the deal…interest rates are up, inventory is slightly up, sales are down by double digits.
I’m not telling you this to create panic. My job is to sell homes regardless of the market
conditions, which I have done for over 22 years. My job is also to keep you informed on the
trends, as they are happening. We don’t have a crystal ball, so statistics are the next best thing.

NEEDS vs WANTS

• Needs – UpDATES; maintenance
  items that increase attractiveness,
  peace of mind, and cause home to sell
  faster
• Wants – UpGRADES that may
  increase VALUE AND make a home
  sell faster; appeal

Remember, not all Upgrades make sense! Let’s talk before you spend –
sometimes money is better spent adjusting price vs. investing more in the
home.