What can you expect from the fall real estate market on the Outer Banks?  One thing is for sure…activity!  So far this year, the number of properties going under contract for the area is up by 7%.  That means we have buyers!

While inventory levels still continue to drop, we do have over a year of inventory still plaguing us (13.5 months).  So, even with the number of sales up and number of listings down, it would still take over one year to sell off all the property currently on the market.

So, why list your home this fall?  Because it can sell!  Yes, it means you have to price it right to compete in today’s market.  The truth is, with more buyers than last year, if the property hasn’t sold, it’s likely over priced.  In a market full of options for buyers, only two things really matter…price and condition.

We’ve noticed that buyers today don’t want to put up the large down payment, and then immediately dump a bunch of money into the home to bring it into the 21^st century.  If your home still screams 80’s or 90’s, it will go to the bottom of the list, unless the price is super attractive.  I’ve personally seen buyers bypass a home with better location that hasn’t been updated, to go further back to a home that has.  Please don’t shoot the messenger!  I don’t make the rules, I just report them.

Here’s what can be expected between now and the end of the year:

• Buyers want a discount because the rental income is basically over.
• The number of sales will increase over summer by about 18% to 20%.
• Many buyers will need to buy something before the end of the year.
• Listing inventory will go up about 12% to 15%, so your home will have a bit more competition. Price it right, so you sell first.
• Buyers who got the itch to buy this summer will be back to take a closer look now that homes are available to show.
• Many buyers like to take the time between now and next spring to make changes to the home and personalize it.

If you’re thinking about selling your Outer Banks home, give me a call to discuss it.  I will do a free market analysis for you.  If you’ll likely be here in the next 60 days, let’s meet!

Dare County’s preliminary flood maps were officially released on Thursday, June 30^th and info on the maps can be found on Dare County’s website at www.darenc.com or directly through the FRIS website.

A presentation on the preliminary maps was given by Steve Garrett from the NC Floodplain Mapping office at the last Dare Board of Commissioners meeting. Base flood elevations throughout Dare County are going down in most areas. Some base flood elevations are going down in areas like Wanchese by as much as 5 feet and many properties currently in an AE zone are now mapped into an X zone.

Mr. Garrett’s presentation can be found at around the 33 minute mark. Mr. Garrett presents information on how to access the web site and shows you how to find the current effective map information as well as the preliminary map data. The base flood elevation changes will impact flood insurance rates and building requirements when the preliminary maps become effective in 18 to 24 months. Properties showing reduced base flood elevations and /or a change to a lesser risk flood zone may find that garages that are not covered by insurance under current maps will be covered under the updated maps; bathrooms and other rooms that are not allowed now due to an area being below base flood elevation will be allowed under the updated maps.

For example, Mr. Garrett showed 12,875 properties in unincorporated Dare County currently in an AE zone. Under the revised preliminary maps, only 8,493 properties are in an AE zone. That number drops dramatically in Kill Devil Hills too, with 4,389 properties currently in an AE zone but under the revised maps, only 182 properties will be in an AE zone. The same scenario holds true for Dare County’s five other towns.

When going to the fris.gov site, select the state of NC; click OK when the Welcome box appears. Then select Dare County from the map or from the drop down menu. You can click on a particular structure by searching by address; however, if you do not enter the address exactly the way appears in the system, then the address will be invalid. All Southern Shores addresses are entered as Kitty Hawk. The box in the right top corner will show “Effective” or current map info. Once a property is clicked on then you can see the current elevation and zone. Click on the top right corner box and change “Effective” to “Preliminary” to see the revised map information. Click on the “Flood Information” box to see the new base flood information and zone information. There are two new zones – “AH” and “AO” which represent shallow flooding areas. AH zone applies strictly to Kitty Hawk. AO represents areas of shallow flooding of 1 to 3 feet.

The preliminary maps were developed by the NC Floodplain Mapping office using grant funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and were developed over a period of years using the latest GPS and Lidar technology as well as historical storm data up to Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd.

While the new maps may show a lower base flood elevation or a change to a lesser risk flood zone, it is important to maintain coverage and discuss flood insurance coverage options with your insurance agent. After all, the Outer Banks is surrounded by water! Also, while a property may be coming out the Special Flood Hazard Area altogether(X zone) and not be required to maintain flood insurance therefore eligible for Preferred Risk coverage when new maps become effective; the premium may actually be higher than what a policyholder is currently paying. Since it is going to take some time before new maps become effective, we will be keeping you updated and informed on the progress!

So I was reading the latest statistics prepared by our Association, which is an amazing service they provide, and I started to get a little excited!  The report is that Average and Median Sales Price are up!  I looked deeper into each Town and area, and noticed a few really bright spots in our market…according to the Median sales price.

One challenge with the data is the comparison is for the entire year of 2015, to just the first 4 months of the year.  Not exactly apples to apples.  However, a few locales are showing significant increases in Median Sales Price.

Does that mean prices are finally starting to go up?   Sadly, not really.  What it does mean is that consumer confidence is strong, so there are more homes selling in the upper price ranges than the previous time period.  That is still a very good sign.  If that continues, and inventory levels have a chance to straighten out, we could then see prices rising again.

The bottom line truth is the basic principle of supply and demand will always dictate our pricing structure.  There is no way around it, I’m afraid.  So if you see reports of our market prices rising…just remember it means more homes in the higher price ranges are selling, not necessarily that prices are going up.  When our area still has 17 months of inventory, it’s hard to imagine that environment producing rising prices.

One other item I considered was, are there fewer homes for sale in the lower price ranges, causing people to buy in the higher price range?  Take a look at a few of the examples below.

For example:

Duck reporting a 13% increase in Median Sales Price

2015               2016

13                       8                      Homes sold under $500,000

7                       11                      $501,000 – $900,000

4                        3                      Over $901,000

Currently 167 homes for sale, 7 sales a month = 24 month supply of homes for sale

Currently 71 homes for sale $500,000 and under

Corolla reporting only a 2% increase in Median Sales Price

2015               2016

33                   30                      Homes sold under $500,000

22                   15                       $501,000 – $900,000

10                   14                       Over $901,000

Currently 370 homes for sale, 17 sales a month = 22 month supply of homes for sale

Currently 147 homes for sale $500,000 and under

*Also important to note the difference in pricing of the over $901,000 – in 2016, there were 6 sales over $1,200,000 versus 2015, only 2.

In 2015 the lowest home sale was $218,000 and 6 under $300,000.  In 2016 the lowest sale was $102,000 and there were 8 under $300,000.  Hard to make a case for a 2% increase in price with that data.

Kill Devil Hills reporting a 14% increase in Median Sales Price

2015               2016

49                   38                       Homes sold under $300,000

8                     15                       $301,000 – $500,000

6                      3                        Over $501,000

Currently 180 homes for sale, 18 sales a month = 10 month supply of homes for sale

Currently 80 homes for sale $300,000 and under

So…As you can see from the numbers above, the higher end sales are seeing a nice surge.  I promise, as soon as prices start to rise, you’ll be the first to know!  Meanwhile, I’m still very excited that consumer confidence is increasing, and Jumbo loans are clearly not an issue.  Rates are still under 4%, which is amazing.  The bottom line is, as always, if you want to sell your home, we can do it!  If you’re thinking of investing, the time is right!