2015 was a good year for real estate. Overall the market finished with an 11% increase in the number of homes sold. While we still have some work to do, there are very good signs for a lot of the area.
Northern Beaches – Corolla & Duck
Leading the category of still in much need for improvement is Corolla. Not far behind is the Town of Duck. The main reason these markets are still showing huge inventory levels and decreasing prices is the lack of a primary market. In these two locations, 99% of sales are discretionary. These sellers don’t HAVE to sell and the buyers don’t HAVE to buy. They are secondary homes. Without a primary market to stabilize things, the inventory in both areas has remained out of control.
It will be interesting to see how long it will take to get inventory levels to a normal absorption rate of 6 months or less. It certainly won’t happen quickly. I think the most notable stat to recognize is the 25% increase in the number of homes sold for Corolla last year. That’s interesting because in most of 2015 there was a 20 to 21 month supply of homes for sale. Even AFTER a 25% increase in homes sold, there is STILL TODAY a 19 month supply of homes for sale. Let that sink in for a minute.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | ||
| Corolla | ||||
| Total Sold | 171 | 158 | 197 | 25% |
| Avg Days on Mkt | 267 | 271 | 250 | |
| Avg List Price | $667,649 | $728,310 | $737,450 | 1% |
| Avg Sold Price | $621,037 | $683,375 | $698,122 | 2% |
| Currently Available | 291 | |||
| Average Price | $849,894 | |||
You’ll notice a slight increase in average sold price above. Yet, I mentioned that prices are still dropping. How can that be? If we look a the breakdown below, you’ll notice there were fewer homes sold under $500,000 and more homes sold over $500,000. That can skew the average price. What we do know is the average home in Corolla goes through 3 price reductions before selling, as well as over 200 days on the market. Both are signs of continued price decline.
| 2014 | 2015 | |||
| Under $350,000 | 28 | 18% | 35 | 18% |
| $350,001 – $500,000 | 50 | 32% | 57 | 29% |
| $500,001 – $700,000 | 36 | 23% | 51 | 26% |
| $700,001 – $1M | 22 | 14% | 29 | 15% |
| $1M – up | 22 | 14% | 25 | 13% |
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | ||
| Duck | ||||
| Total Sold | 82 | 76 | 75 | -1% |
| Avg Days on Mkt | 254 | 218 | 251 | |
| Avg List Price | $776,662 | $781,055 | $661,670 | -15% |
| Avg Sold Price | $714,076 | $728,505 | $619,861 | -15% |
| Currently Available | 150 | |||
| Average Price | $687,000.00 | |||
What’s interesting for Duck is the very clear shift in lower priced homes selling. The jump in homes sold from $350,000 to $500,000 was massive! Notice also, the drop in homes sold in the higher priced categories.
| 2014 | 2015 | |||
| Under $350,000 | 13 | 17% | 12 | 16% |
| $350,001 – $500,000 | 15 | 20% | 25 | 33% |
| $500,001 – $700,000 | 18 | 24% | 13 | 17% |
| $700,001 – $1M | 20 | 26% | 18 | 24% |
| $1M – up | 10 | 13% | 7 | 9% |
Southern Shores
Going into 2015, Southern Shores was showing great numbers. I’m not sure what changed throughout the year, but they didn’t end as strongly as they started.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | ||
| Southern Shores | ||||
| Total Sold | 70 | 96 | 97 | 1% |
| Avg Days on Mkt | 202 | 192 | 235 | |
| Avg List Price | $541,660 | $519,143 | $470,721 | -9% |
| Avg Sold Price | $511,185 | $487,978 | $444,475 | -9% |
| Currently Available | 78 | |||
| Average Price | $653,286.00 |
Another Town with a huge increase in homes selling under $350,000 and a drop in sales of those higher priced. Very interesting to see what will take place in 2016 for Southern Shores as it’s still a very sought after location.
| 2014 | 2015 | |||
| Under $350,000 | 29 | 30% | 44 | 45% |
| $350,001 – $500,000 | 36 | 38% | 28 | 29% |
| $500,001 – $700,000 | 19 | 20% | 15 | 15% |
| $700,001 – $1M | 7 | 7% | 8 | 8% |
| $1M – up | 5 | 5% | 2 | 2% |
Southern Beaches – Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills and Nags Head
You’ll notice quite a few differences with these Town stats than the northern beaches. Once again we go back to having a primary market. These areas have been largely helped and stabilized for that reason.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | ||
| Southern Beaches | ||||
| Total Sold | 411 | 384 | 440 | 15% |
| Avg Days on Mkt | 211 | 175 | 170 | |
| Avg List Price | $343,527 | $368,743 | $361,164 | -2% |
| Avg Sold Price | $324,716 | $353,107 | $345,177 | -2% |
| Currently Available | 394 | |||
| Average Price | $497,639.00 |
The major news in the southern beaches for price range stats is the increase in homes selling from $350,000 to $500,000. The rest remained fairly unchanged.
| 2014 | 2015 | |||
| Under $350,000 | 278 | 72% | 303 | 69% |
| $350,001 – $500,000 | 49 | 13% | 79 | 18% |
| $500,001 – $700,000 | 30 | 8% | 39 | 9% |
| $700,001 – $1M | 17 | 4% | 10 | 2% |
| $1M – up | 10 | 3% | 9 | 2% |
It’s my expectation that we will see similar numbers in 2016. I’m not predicting another year with double digit increases in number of homes sold. However, it would be lovely to see some serious stabilization in pricing for the northern beaches. I’m not sure that’s possible with the oversupply of inventory, but it’s on my wish list!
If I can help you with buying or selling on the Outer Banks, let me know!
