2015 Outer Banks Market in Review by Area

2015 was a good year for real estate.  Overall the market finished with an 11% increase in the number of homes sold.  While we still have some work to do, there are very good signs for a lot of the area.

Northern Beaches – Corolla & Duck

Leading the category of still in much need for improvement is Corolla.  Not far behind is the Town of Duck.  The main reason these markets are still showing huge inventory levels and decreasing prices is the lack of a primary market.  In these two locations, 99% of sales are discretionary.  These sellers don’t HAVE to sell and the buyers don’t HAVE to buy.  They are secondary homes.  Without a primary market to stabilize things, the inventory in both areas has remained out of control.

It will be interesting to see how long it will take to get inventory levels to a normal absorption rate of 6 months or less.  It certainly won’t happen quickly.  I think the most notable stat to recognize is the 25% increase in the number of homes sold for Corolla last year.  That’s interesting because in most of 2015 there was a 20 to 21 month supply of homes for sale.  Even AFTER a 25% increase in homes sold, there is STILL TODAY a 19 month supply of homes for sale.  Let that sink in for a minute.

2013 2014 2015
Corolla
Total Sold 171 158 197 25%
Avg Days on Mkt 267 271 250
Avg List Price  $667,649  $728,310  $737,450 1%
Avg Sold Price  $621,037  $683,375  $698,122 2%
Currently Available 291
Average Price $849,894

You’ll notice a slight increase in average sold price above.  Yet, I mentioned that prices are still dropping.  How can that be?  If we look a the breakdown below, you’ll notice there were fewer homes sold under $500,000 and more homes sold over $500,000.  That can skew the average price.  What we do know is the average home in Corolla goes through 3 price reductions before selling, as well as over 200 days on the market.  Both are signs of continued price decline.

2014 2015
Under $350,000 28 18% 35 18%
$350,001 – $500,000 50 32% 57 29%
$500,001 – $700,000 36 23% 51 26%
$700,001 – $1M 22 14% 29 15%
$1M – up 22 14% 25 13%

 

2013 2014 2015
Duck
Total Sold 82 76 75 -1%
Avg Days on Mkt 254 218 251
Avg List Price  $776,662  $781,055  $661,670 -15%
Avg Sold Price  $714,076  $728,505  $619,861 -15%
Currently Available 150
Average Price  $687,000.00

What’s interesting for Duck is the very clear shift in lower priced homes selling.  The jump in homes sold from $350,000 to $500,000 was massive!  Notice also, the drop in homes sold in the higher priced categories.

2014 2015
Under $350,000 13 17% 12 16%
$350,001 – $500,000 15 20% 25 33%
$500,001 – $700,000 18 24% 13 17%
$700,001 – $1M 20 26% 18 24%
$1M – up 10 13% 7 9%

 

Southern Shores

Going into 2015, Southern Shores was showing great numbers.  I’m not sure what changed throughout the year, but they didn’t end as strongly as they started.

2013 2014 2015
Southern Shores
Total Sold 70 96 97 1%
Avg Days on Mkt 202 192 235
Avg List Price  $541,660  $519,143  $470,721 -9%
Avg Sold Price  $511,185  $487,978  $444,475 -9%
Currently Available 78
Average Price  $653,286.00

Another Town with a huge increase in homes selling under $350,000 and a drop in sales of those higher priced.  Very interesting to see what will take place in 2016 for Southern Shores as it’s still a very sought after location.

2014 2015
Under $350,000 29 30% 44 45%
$350,001 – $500,000 36 38% 28 29%
$500,001 – $700,000 19 20% 15 15%
$700,001 – $1M 7 7% 8 8%
$1M – up 5 5% 2 2%

 

Southern Beaches – Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills and Nags Head

You’ll notice quite a few differences with these Town stats than the northern beaches.  Once again we go back to having a primary market.  These areas have been largely helped and stabilized for that reason.

2013 2014 2015
Southern Beaches
Total Sold 411 384 440 15%
Avg Days on Mkt 211 175 170
Avg List Price  $343,527  $368,743  $361,164 -2%
Avg Sold Price  $324,716  $353,107  $345,177 -2%
Currently Available 394
Average Price  $497,639.00

The major news in the southern beaches for price range stats is the increase in homes selling from $350,000 to $500,000.  The rest remained fairly unchanged.

2014 2015
Under $350,000 278 72% 303 69%
$350,001 – $500,000 49 13% 79 18%
$500,001 – $700,000 30 8% 39 9%
$700,001 – $1M 17 4% 10 2%
$1M – up 10 3% 9 2%

It’s my expectation that we will see similar numbers in 2016.  I’m not predicting another year with double digit increases in number of homes sold.  However, it would be lovely to see some serious stabilization in pricing for the northern beaches.  I’m not sure that’s possible with the oversupply of inventory, but it’s on my wish list!

If I can help you with buying or selling on the Outer Banks, let me know!

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